Luck is luck..
..luck isn’t structural, luck is running out.
If you do not have the capacity (who has??) to read Zoltan Pozsar's latest note, just look at the chart above, his conclusions are easy: It was a tremendous amount of luck, not skill, that produced this astonishing run from sub 1K in the SPX to current levels.
We are in a secular regime change. Forget everything you thought you knew pre February 24. It is obsolete. If you made money - good, but consider it luck.
Pozsar in his own words: "Luck is luck. Luck isn’t structural. Luck is running out. Central banks were lucky to have price stability as a tailwind when they had to fight crises of FX pegs, par, repo, and the cash-futures basis. Those were easy crises. The ones you can print your way out of with QE. But not this time around. Inflation borne of shortages, goods, and labor is a whole different ballgame. You can’t QT or hike your way out of it easily, and if you can’t, credibility gets damaged, a decline of the US dollar is inevitable."
If you do not have the capacity (who has??) to read Zoltan Pozsar's latest note, just look at the chart above, his conclusions are easy: It was a tremendous amount of luck, not skill, that produced this astonishing run from sub 1K in the SPX to current levels.
We are in a secular regime change. Forget everything you thought you knew pre February 24. It is obsolete. If you made money - good, but consider it luck.
Pozsar in his own words: "Luck is luck. Luck isn’t structural. Luck is running out. Central banks were lucky to have price stability as a tailwind when they had to fight crises of FX pegs, par, repo, and the cash-futures basis. Those were easy crises. The ones you can print your way out of with QE. But not this time around. Inflation borne of shortages, goods, and labor is a whole different ballgame. You can’t QT or hike your way out of it easily, and if you can’t, credibility gets damaged, a decline of the US dollar is inevitable."
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