Market Selloff | Labor History Lesson 🫣 | CAUTION All Assets
The civilian unemployment rate ( labor market )appears to have not only bottomed (multiple double bottoms), but it seems to have bottomed in an area that is historically unsustainable.
I encourage all market enthusiasts to think back over the past several years, as bots and social media "experts" were pumping crypto and tesla while at all time highs, only to be wiped out in catastrophic selloffs.
The difference this time is the stakes are much higher, as we can see the next phase implies a significant contraction in the labor market accompanied by ANOTHER collapse in equities, commodities, high-yield debt, and emerging markets.
Moreover, I would expect the fallout from this imminent labor contraction will likely persist longer - comparatively longer - as the transition between jobs takes an unknown amount of time... couple this with contracted liquidity and you have a circumstance resembling that of an actual recession / depression.
-Interest rates rise because prices rise; interest rates fall when prices fall.
-There is no market for a 40-yr mortgage bond.
-AI is a marketing fad (crypto proves it). AI has been around for decades.
-Production cuts occur when sales slow (not when sales are expanding / growing).
-Market algos are nothing more than insider trading disguised to duck the SEC.
-The auto industry has been stagnant for decades; Tesla is not an exception.
And it came to pass, when the Philistine arose, and came, and drew nigh to meet David, that David hastened, and ran toward the army to meet the Philistine. 1 Samuel 17:48
Be well!
I encourage all market enthusiasts to think back over the past several years, as bots and social media "experts" were pumping crypto and tesla while at all time highs, only to be wiped out in catastrophic selloffs.
The difference this time is the stakes are much higher, as we can see the next phase implies a significant contraction in the labor market accompanied by ANOTHER collapse in equities, commodities, high-yield debt, and emerging markets.
Moreover, I would expect the fallout from this imminent labor contraction will likely persist longer - comparatively longer - as the transition between jobs takes an unknown amount of time... couple this with contracted liquidity and you have a circumstance resembling that of an actual recession / depression.
-Interest rates rise because prices rise; interest rates fall when prices fall.
-There is no market for a 40-yr mortgage bond.
-AI is a marketing fad (crypto proves it). AI has been around for decades.
-Production cuts occur when sales slow (not when sales are expanding / growing).
-Market algos are nothing more than insider trading disguised to duck the SEC.
-The auto industry has been stagnant for decades; Tesla is not an exception.
And it came to pass, when the Philistine arose, and came, and drew nigh to meet David, that David hastened, and ran toward the army to meet the Philistine. 1 Samuel 17:48
Be well!
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