S&P 500 | ATTENTION | Crises inbound? Possible distribution

15 сент. 2018 г.

It looks like many stocks are topping and forming a Wyckoff distribution pattern on the bigger timeframes (weekly and monthly charts).

From observations, something looks very wrong. Banks are promoting and inciting millenials to save and put it in the stockmarket, many bullish news and buy recommendations in main stream business and investment papers, while many third world countries are the brink of self destruction due to hyperinflation. Also, the UK and Europe are in pretty big trouble which get worse, not only in the financial and real estate sector, but socially as well.
Low interest rates causes more cheap loans and that debt cannot be repaid by most people, causing this huge boom-bust cycle once again in many sectors of society, yet this MSM keep propagating everything is fine and the economy is doing better than ever.

People expected gold and silver prices to rise a few months ago when stocks were in a pullback, but they continued to drop and the equity went in to USD cash, causing other currencies to depreciate vs the USD (see DXY).

I expect a topping close around these prices with a fakeout before heading down. I'm not good in timing, so I won't make any serious estimations other than my opinion of 6 months to 2 years.
Watching the dow, dji, vix, crypto- and real estate markets can give clues where we're heading.

My prediction is that when the stock markets go down, people will turn to cash again and probably real estate and farming, maybe the masses will buy gold and silver, but I'm very bearish on precious metals, I still think gold going to 3 digits within 2 decades. A million Joes Shmoes buying gold or silver do not move markets.

When the stock market crashes, I think crypto will tank even faster, harder and deeper than what I've thought, possibly 2-3 digits for Bitcoin. The reasoning is very simple. It's a speculative market and we know from history big money is moving out first from speculative markets in times of crises and you'd do the same I assume. When people need money in a crises, they will/need to sell to pay their obligations, probably even in loss.

Let's see how the markets are doing this year. I primarily wanted to make this idea to see this once in a lifetime opportunity and it would be nice to see how the chart plays out when you click that play button a few years from now.

I'm not going short yet.

26 сент. 2018 г.

Заметка

Oh oh, what's happening :)



Let's wait for monthly close (3 more days), it might end as a doji and rollover afterwards.

10 окт. 2018 г.

Заметка

Broken out of channel to the downside :cocktail:

7 февр. 2019 г.

Заметка

Short filled last Tuesday with more scaled in a bit higher, but only one filled, looks like the deadcat bounce is over.

7 февр. 2019 г.

Заметка

Talked about my observations on the market yesterday with a few friends.
Dxy parabolic breakout of rising wedge (as a consequence the entire forex market pumped and dumped & dumped and pumped), WHILE indices went up and gold down, here is your answer.



Also sold 50% of my gold long position at $1320 to rebuy $1300 after cnbc clowns and cheerleaders became euphoric again, but it only went to $1302, but the gold correlation relative to DXY is meager % return on risk. The other half is exit by stop.

My long term forecast is still gold 3 digits (for the reason above given, read: gold is a bad investment and cheered on by fantasy which got nothing to do with pragmatic reality, it should only serve as one of the last resorts of capital preservation), bitcoin 3 digits and stocks to rise up after the next leg down.

Just because the MSM is bad, doesn't mean the alternative media is any better, they're probably even worse. Don't be trapped in the game, play and win it.

Just because the communist-fascist regimes are bad, doesn't mean a dictator or democracy are good. Life is about learning and living, so do the best you can.