SXP - June Breakdown

17 июн. 2021 г.

Hello Traders and Analysts,

Breakdown:
1. Note
2. Contents
3. Research breakdown
4. Education recap
5. Information on Lupa.

A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged neutral, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Overall, assessing the short idea [but remaining patient].
Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities.

Master Key for zones

• Red = Three Month
  
• Blue = Monthly
  
• Purple = weekly
  
• Scarlet [Red] - Four day
  
• Orange = Daily
  
• Green = 8 Hour
  
• Grey = 4hour
  
• Pink = 1 hour
  

See the original below:
This will provide a good explanation with multiple charts and views which give enough evidence to create the possibility of the targets reaching the Fibonacci over extended pattern.

Analysis for 2021 outlook.

Multi-time frame analysis overview:

Weekly time frame of imbalance analysis:
Here is the weekly imbalances taking effect of the over extended Fibonacci sequence.
The ray (trendline) has been indicating strong resistance and has been tested repeatedly thus far, creating wave patterns and more recently rejected weekly candle closes which close out the low of the weekly candle.[note May 3, May 10].


Here is the monthly timeframe:
Price has moved towards the 1.618 and 1.786, this is now a critical zone to highlight.
Price has now created the interesting inefficient pricing leaving a long imbalance short effect, this will require patience while the sequence is completed for the Selling imbalance to take place. [currently this is not actionable for sell probabilities] However, smaller timeframes of course opportunities will be presented.
Take note of an impulsive wick and instantly rejecting, this can be the creation of the imbalance all time high.


Cross asset analysis:
Where are we with the Inflation ETF - RINF VS SPX?
Here is the current action view of RINF vs SPX


EEM vs SPX
What does the emerging markets show us?
Well the imbalances are within the same as the US market, but the economic recovery in terms of imbalance price driving in the EEM - shows that whilst fundamentally there is more volatility . The activeness of these markets provides a telling Fibonacci extension target is not to dissimilar along with the SPX .
Beware of XAU , XAG - currently lagging behind upon a large correctional imbalance move as inflation remains low, plus the imbalance zone not ready yet for action to be taken.


EEM current scenario where EEM is outperforming the SPX still, with a risk-off approach, EEM being more volatile - the discounted factor will present opportunities.

Vix vs SPX
Do not forget about the VIX, the volatility index is currently at low levels within a monthly imbalance and creating a good sense of fractal movements within the lower time frames for example, the daily and 16 hour timeframes. Price is showing a good probability of supressed capitulation waters, in relation to the Fibonacci sequence - SPX will nearly or complete the move to $4360 est. and then the VIX will grow an increasing sign of bullish probability based on high inefficiency.


XAU USD vs DXY
What is the scenario at the current play [16th June 2021].
Price has shown that the imbalance of XAU will look to find a weekly imbalance before heading further towards the longterm targets above $2000 [see XAU forecast] *


* this links to the XAU idea:

DXY is critical here as it forms a strong outlook in terms of the cross correlation of other assets (shown above) to give an indication of taking the risk in account that the identified imbalance is an area of interest to monitor moves for SPX and XAU alike in respective of awaiting the next action.


Current scenario of the DXY vs SPX
Black = DXY
See the split screen of the outcome of the weekly USD CAD [right], where price has rejected the weekly imbalance and still inside the monthly imbalance however, but the wick on the weekly has successfully filled in the wick creating a buying imbalance upon the shift of probability.
The DXY has also noted a triple bottom where the monthly shows a strong probability of the negative correlation of the SPX and EUR USD where the imbalances will offer opportunities in buying imbalances, short imbalances respectively.


Fed funds - tracker

Removed - Volume profile
Fed Funds tracker
XAU XAG inflation tracker

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