The bulls need to reclaim 5815!
Structurally, the SPX has printed a higher low compared to the previous day, with the weekly low at 5863 and the higher low at 5785. A break below 5800 opens the door to 5785; a break below 5785, implies an outside day with major support at 5765/5760. If bulls cannot reclaim the 5815/5825 zone, this would be interpreted as a backtest of the breakdown zone from Wednesday.
Dealer Gamma remains more neutral than imbalanced, but flows are destabilizing. There is potential for significant directional or flash moves as dealers chase deltas, selling weakness and buying strength.
Since VIX remains elevated, 19 and the Volatility Risk Premium (VRP) is at a premium, implied volatility could be an exacerbating factor in both directions. The upside is heavily dependent on a vol down environment. A reclaim of the 5815 Flip (dealer transition) often attracts volatility sellers, which could trigger a sharp upside squeeze. Vol crush Friday?
Dealer Gamma remains more neutral than imbalanced, but flows are destabilizing. There is potential for significant directional or flash moves as dealers chase deltas, selling weakness and buying strength.
Since VIX remains elevated, 19 and the Volatility Risk Premium (VRP) is at a premium, implied volatility could be an exacerbating factor in both directions. The upside is heavily dependent on a vol down environment. A reclaim of the 5815 Flip (dealer transition) often attracts volatility sellers, which could trigger a sharp upside squeeze. Vol crush Friday?
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