Comparing 1960-70's to today
I still have a hard time believing the US will ultimately see a soft landing from the most aggressive rate hiking event in history...the lag effect will prevail in due time.
Ask yourself this...If the US economy is so great & resilient then why do the people in power need to deficit spend, especially given we are at maximum employment? Just makes zero sense that this sort of recklessness will end up being positive for the stock market. Instead, could it have already lead the SPX to an end of the bull market that began in 2009?
I keep going back to the chart patterns of the 1960's-70's as patterns do like to repeat. What is interesting about that time period is that AFTER the presidential election in 1968 & 1972; the stock market immediately went into bear mode. As you can see in my past post (click on the below chart to be taken there),
I discussed how it is very uncommon for the stock market to go into "bear mode" prior to elections and that it can take years for the unemployment rate to spike; hence I had warned for bears to not discount the election year as being a bullish year.
In addition, the up moves in the 60-70's where done in 3 waves...with the last wave being roughly equal to wave 1 of the up move (as seen by the heavy black lines).
It should also be noted that the down moves during 60-70's were just like last year...didn't have any waves to them; just down.
And as a chartist...whomever is elected president in 2024 is meaningless. What matters is that the event is over.
So I am looking for short set-ups now through early 2025 UNLESS during 2024 we can break above the solid black line, which is roughly at 5450 SPX. In the meantime I continue taking bullish swing trading opportunities that present themselves.
Lastly, if you are a permabull, it behooves you to study bear markets, especially since they happen so infrequently, so that you can minimize risk should you see chart breakdowns, etc. No one enjoys experiencing a 5% drawdown, let alone a 20-50% one.
Always stay nimble!
Ask yourself this...If the US economy is so great & resilient then why do the people in power need to deficit spend, especially given we are at maximum employment? Just makes zero sense that this sort of recklessness will end up being positive for the stock market. Instead, could it have already lead the SPX to an end of the bull market that began in 2009?
I keep going back to the chart patterns of the 1960's-70's as patterns do like to repeat. What is interesting about that time period is that AFTER the presidential election in 1968 & 1972; the stock market immediately went into bear mode. As you can see in my past post (click on the below chart to be taken there),
In addition, the up moves in the 60-70's where done in 3 waves...with the last wave being roughly equal to wave 1 of the up move (as seen by the heavy black lines).
It should also be noted that the down moves during 60-70's were just like last year...didn't have any waves to them; just down.
And as a chartist...whomever is elected president in 2024 is meaningless. What matters is that the event is over.
So I am looking for short set-ups now through early 2025 UNLESS during 2024 we can break above the solid black line, which is roughly at 5450 SPX. In the meantime I continue taking bullish swing trading opportunities that present themselves.
Lastly, if you are a permabull, it behooves you to study bear markets, especially since they happen so infrequently, so that you can minimize risk should you see chart breakdowns, etc. No one enjoys experiencing a 5% drawdown, let alone a 20-50% one.
Always stay nimble!
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