S&P 500 Forcast..!
It would be better to use weekly charts for long-term analysis!
Trend: Bullish +115% gain in the past 89 weeks!
Bullish Runs: 6x, gain +47.51- 10.86%, Duration: 21-7
Corrections: 6 times, -4.17% - 10.55%, Duration: 2-5 weeks!
Now let's compare the distance between new and previous pivot highs!
In the past 5 times anytime S&P 500 passed above the previous pivot high moves between 10.98% to 4.6%, duration: 11-24 weeks!
My observation:
Looking closer at the above phenomenon we see anytime SPx has closed above the previous pivot high, it has advanced less!
This clearly shows the rate of return has been decreased constantly since March 2020.
Having said that, the next pivot high for S&P 500 in a Bullish case could be 3-4.5% above the last pivot high.
If SPX closed above the previous pivot high in the coming week, the target could be 4886-4960 in the following weeks!
Since the market has not made a Lower Low pattern in the last 89 weeks, closing below 4495.12 must be considered an alarming sign if happens!
Calculating the risk of Entry: Reward to Risk: 1.13
You can see the most important support (green lines) and resistance (red lines) to watch in the coming days in these charts!
Best,
Moshkelgosha
DISCLAIMER
I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
Trend: Bullish +115% gain in the past 89 weeks!
Bullish Runs: 6x, gain +47.51- 10.86%, Duration: 21-7
Corrections: 6 times, -4.17% - 10.55%, Duration: 2-5 weeks!
Now let's compare the distance between new and previous pivot highs!
In the past 5 times anytime S&P 500 passed above the previous pivot high moves between 10.98% to 4.6%, duration: 11-24 weeks!
My observation:
Looking closer at the above phenomenon we see anytime SPx has closed above the previous pivot high, it has advanced less!
This clearly shows the rate of return has been decreased constantly since March 2020.
Having said that, the next pivot high for S&P 500 in a Bullish case could be 3-4.5% above the last pivot high.
If SPX closed above the previous pivot high in the coming week, the target could be 4886-4960 in the following weeks!
Since the market has not made a Lower Low pattern in the last 89 weeks, closing below 4495.12 must be considered an alarming sign if happens!
Calculating the risk of Entry: Reward to Risk: 1.13
You can see the most important support (green lines) and resistance (red lines) to watch in the coming days in these charts!
Best,
Moshkelgosha
DISCLAIMER
I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
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