GFC Major Event Timeline

2 дек. 2023 г.

Timeline of events leading up to the GFC market crash. As can be seen, not everything crashed at once. The yield curve inversion was a very long leading indicator. Yields peaking was a long leading indicator. The Rate Pause by the Federal Reserve was a long leading indicator. The market didn't even top until months after rate cuts started and unemployment was in a clear upward trend. As the market was in a topping process, the CPI bottomed and ripped higher, along with gold and oil. The last thing to top, just before the market really crashed, was oil, which coincided with the top in the CPI. The IWM had a false breakout to new ATHs before reversing and crashing with the market.

List of tickers used:
S&P 500: SPX
Russel 2000: IWM
Gold: GOLD
Oil: CL1!
CPI: St Louis Fed CPIAUCSL, % y/y
Unemployment: UNEMPLOY
10-year yield: US10Y
2-year yield: US02Y
Mortgage rates: MORTGAGE30US
Junk Bond Yields: BAMLH0A0HYM2EY
Investment-grade Bond Prices: LQD
Fed Funds Rate: FEDFUNDS