Don't expect a strong rebound, the end of correction is 2 early

4 мар. 2020 г.

I refer to the analysis I published last time. The five-wave ending diagonal from Jan 2019 to Feb 2020 ends dramatically following the fears of the pandemic widespread of coronavirus that may cause economic and financial repercussion to the global market.

(Here I wish to make a remark to people applying Elliot Wave Theory. Sometimes the theory has its shortcoming to predict 100% the future development. It provides us the possible scenarios. The fact that unexpected fundamentals and market sentiments change the wave structure. However, the major trend is not affected. You may visit my previous analysis appended below.)

As shown in the right chart, the first wave of correction ends at 0.5 of the preceding five-wave ending diagonal. SP500 rebounds. However, we see from the monthly chart, it clearly displays a bearish evening star (Dec, Jan and Feb). It tells us that the market reversal has started.

Now we go to the left chart. We now see a 0.5 rebound from the preceding first wave of correction. Probably the short term rebound comes to an end. The optimistic atmosphere should not be able to support SP500 to go back to the crest so soon. 50% is the first resistance level. and probably 61.8% is another resistance level. Panic selling may come back soon. Stay tuned.

Happy trade.