Central banks! Your week ahead

24 авг. 2020 г.

Central banks, central banks, central banks. This week ahead, central bankers from all around the world will conduct their annual Jackson hole meeting in which historically they discussed the macro-environment and, of course, monetary policy. However, due to Coronavirus restrictions, they cannot meet at Jackson Hole for the first time in 40 years. Like many meetings, they will be hosting a virtual, available for the public to tune into. The main focus? “Navigating the Decade Ahead: Implications for Monetary Policy” – Or put simply, Monetary policy: Coronavirus edition. Here is your week ahead.


Wednesday, 26th August – U.S. Durable goods order
The Coronavirus continues to ravage the United States, with no visible end in sight. Currently, the United States recorded 48,163 new cases today, with 1,013 deaths. It is an awesome sight (the literal meaning of awesome, as in awe-some) as the U.S. stock market continues to rally to new highs, and billionaires see their wealth surge. The U.S. Durable Goods Order figure measures the cost of orders received by manufacturers for durable goods, including vehicles and appliances. As these are significant investments, they provide a good bearing on U.S. consumers (buying a new car when you just got laid off is unlikely). Therefore a higher than expected figure should boost U.S. equities and the U.S. dollar. The previous print was at a 7.6% increase in the cost of durable goods purchased, with consensus to see that number rise only 3.6% this month.



Thursday, 27th August – Switzerland GDP Quarter over Quarter
With just under 40,000 confirmed cases, it is fair to say that Switzerland and many nations are continuing to grapple with the fight against the Coronavirus. However, just like with many other European countries, Switzerland is experiencing a resurgence of the virus. Switzerland recorded more than 300 new Coronavirus cases on Friday just before their quarterly update on Thursday. Analysts predict a print of -8.7% decline in GDP, from a 2.6% decline in the first quarter.



Thursday 27th August – Jackson hole meeting, US GDP, Fed Jerome Powell Speech and Bank of Canada’s Governor Bailey Speech
Obviously not in Jackson hole due to the Coronavirus, Central banks from all around the world will host an online meeting discussing how monetary policy will be affected in the future from the Coronavirus pandemic. For the first time in 40 years, not only will the meeting not take place at Jackson Hole, but the conference will be available for the public to watch live. Furthermore, US GDP figures alongside both Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and Governor Macklem from Bank of Canada is set to speak. There is no doubt that this will be a stormy day in the markets.



Friday, 28th August -BoE Governor Bailey speech
The United Kingdom continues to record new Coronavirus cases, logging over 1,041 new cases today. Investors and traders are wary of the possibility of negative rates in the future, with Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden stating that the BoE has “further headroom” to go with regards to monetary policy. The Bank of England currently holds interest rates at 0.1% and maintained its 745 Billion asset purchase target. They predict that the U.K. economy will not return to its pre-Covid levels until the end of 2021.

A big week ahead with monetary policy and forecasts from top Economists and Central bankers. Trader and Investors should be wary of the speeches ahead before placing any trades this week.

Safe trading!