ed Will Finish Badly, Oil Waiting for OPEC+

4 нояб. 2021 г.

The main event of this week - the meeting of the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee - was generally held in line with the expectations of the markets. Tapering will be: from November, the volume of asset purchases by the Fed will be systematically reduced by $ 10 billion a month. It would seem to be the most material signal for the markets that the money rain is coming to an end.

But the markets preferred to hear not this, but the fact that the Fed still considers inflation to be a temporary phenomenon and that there is no talk of raising rates yet in principle. As a result, the US stock market grew steadily. Apparently, nothing can stop this bull until he drives himself to death. Because how to embarrass an optimist who should have been upset that he was shot in the leg, but he says that he was lucky, because they could have shot two. In general, the bubble will not deflate smoothly, but there will be a loud explosion. But the question of timing, as well as the reasons for the collapse, remains open.

Today the word is for the Bank of England, which is expected to be as aggressive as possible in relation to other leading central banks of the world (Fed, ECB, Bank of Japan). Even the possibility of a first rate hike is on the agenda. Although the most likely option is still the option with an unchanged rate, but comments about its growth at the start of 2022. In any case, the pound has a good chance of growth today. So we pay attention to this.

As for the chances of a decline, today oil has them. The hysteria surrounding the energy crisis has subsided somewhat (which, however, does not mean that all problems have been resolved) and the oil market has become more actively interested in the growth of oil reserves for the 6th week in a row, the resumption of negotiations with Iran on the atomic deal. In addition, today is the OPEC + meeting, which should mark the emergence of an additional 400K b / d supply on the oil market. In general, there are enough reasons for correction.