SPX500 - Smokey the bear pennant

1 июл. 2022 г.

frustrating weeks of trading usually involve pennants, and here it looks like we have a nice bear pennant getting ready for a move to around 3550 area. So far it's acting correctly - a whipsaw every few hours, chopping traders up to bits before a larger move, in this case - down.

It could slog around in here some more, but I wouldn't do anything but add shorts if/when it goes a bit higher, as it may do today. Longs had their chance yesterday and today to break out, and they failed both times.

The idea is invalid if price breaches over 3816.

1 июл. 2022 г.

Заметка

Likely still in the D wave, if so the close will look bullish as E

1 июл. 2022 г.

Заметка

According to elliot wave triangle guidelines, wave E MAY overshoot the A_C line. This may happen here as I think we're in the final movement of E

1 июл. 2022 г.

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Overshoot may be done now.

1 июл. 2022 г.

Заметка

Although they broke above A, I'm going to hold shorts.
If I'm wrong, so be it, but I see many corrective patterns on the major stocks - AAPL AMZN etc. Also, BTC looks to be setting up for a down move before next week - a risk off indication in my opinion. This is my choice and it could be VERY wrong. We'll see next week. Have a wonderful 4th!

1 июл. 2022 г.

Заметка

maybe not a pennant but a triple correction instead. All of these are difficult to trade, but in this case it looks corrective, not impulsive so I still expect more downside.