S&P 500 path of least resistance is higher, target 2200 points

10 авг. 2016 г.

Bulls are so bullish that they ignore each and every bearish signal yet again. Nothing can stop them besides their price target to close the long trade, which might be 2200 points.

I had way too many upvotes on my last bearish chart (eight upvotes) in a very short time, which usually means my idea is going to fail. My bear idea had the headline that the bull trap is final, but the decline on Tuesday was way too tiny. So now back to the bull side. My longer period indicators are still peaking, but my short period indicators are turning to a new ultra-bull breakout, which could cause something like we saw on the DAX on Tuesday.

Current price: 2181.5
Entry: 2180
1. Target: 2200
2. Target: 2245
Stop loss: 2170

1. Target Reward: 20 points
2. Target Reward: 65 points
Risk: 10 points


P.S. DAX (GER30) bullish breakout to new yearly highs in 2016, happened Tuesday:

11 авг. 2016 г.

Заметка

UPDATE: 17 hours later:

I'm starting to see a pattern. The last time I got bullish (see chart linked below) this first tiny spike caused my calculations to get bullish but then the market quickly fell instead. And again a similar small spike mislead my calculation to get very bullish and then the decline immediately started (this time though also driven by bearish fundamental oil news).

It could be that the entire program which drives this market repeats, which would mean a sharp decline on Thursday, August 11, 2016:

Last fake-out vs current one:



My last bull chart:

18 авг. 2016 г.

Заметка

UPDATE: 8 days later.

At least I forecasted the price direction of the "S&P 500" correctly, while 2200 points has not been reached (only 2193.9). The prediction I made 8 days ago ends here. I'm currently more bearish again.