SPX - Fibonacci reactive sell - Neutral stance at present
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Neutral Application until Imbalance forms:
Hello Traders and Analysts,
Breakdown:
1. Note
2. Contents
3. Research breakdown
4. Education recap
5. Information on Lupa.
A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged short, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances.
Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. However, note - the overall trend is bullish.
Master Key for zones
Bearish Channel upon a diagonal forming?
8Hour time frame.
Not looking trade this pattern as yet, due to the fact, the channel upon the higher time frames, looks to create a high probability of rejecting the 4400 mark and creating a further high.
However, keep in mind this scenario will form an opportunity for short term traders.
Update or original 8 hour
The Daily chart shows us a steep wedge formation - just like the three day chart.
Weekly Chart
The Fibonacci from the swing low - to the top of the market, which created our new "0" as the new all time high part of the structure.
The Continuation of the weekly imbalance had created a new area on the weekly, and bi-monthly timeframe - which offered a 0.236 Fibonacci retracement, indicating that the buying imbalances are still present. [This is now the weekly zone to add long positions].
Now the -0.27, -0.618 extension targets are reached.
The Wedge channel had begun and created a very strong channel with an effective structure of the sellers attempting to make an imbalance. The channel has now provided areas where price can pivot to.
The monthly has a future strong imbalance formed.
The three month indicates where price can be used for buying activity* So long as price reacts to the 61.8 & 70.5% levels.
See the Pathway where price can take us, using the probability of a bearish imbalance formation.
See the second chart proposing the outlook where the full completion occurs.
Adding in volume - to assist identifying the current up, down interest where buyers, sellers are at present.
This helps assist with searching for High Volume Nodes (HVN) which are peaks in volume at or around a price level, the operation behind this is buyers, sellers provide high volume, keeping price steady over a trading range e.g. 1-2weeks+ offering an area of fair value. This will help look for shorter term ranges to trade.
SPX VS VIX
Refer to the weekly negatively correlated SPX and associated Volatility index.
Vix Chart - please keep in mind that the VIX has correlation, causation is caused from the associated short term risk of the sentiment change within profit taking, impending policy changes, health warnings, war and other macro-factors.
With that being said, the risks presenting the wedge, come with a re-active level where the "low volatility below 20" has been supressed by the market, the risk implied that and the importance of hi-lighting the exposure to all time highs in the US , that and world markets a like has presented opportunities to sensitivity of prices to faulter.
Quantitative easing (QE) is where the increasing the money supply of the system, where the Central Bank creates new money and uses the money to make asset purchases. These asset purchases inject the new money into the system.
(QE) tapering will be seen on interest rates. The impact is almost immediate - affecting the sentiment. (QE) can be used where interest is at zero %, as the central bank(s) want to introduce more stimulus.
Conversely - when easing occurs, adoption of a new introduction is will send the interest rates shooting, the money to those who can offer the highest interest rates and this competition will send the interest rates skyrocketing. This directly affects the Equity market and the FX safe-haven pairs immediately.
Employment
In relation to employment is closely linked to that state of inflation or deflation in the economy. When there is excess money in the economy, the confidence is upbeat and CPI [consumer price index] aligns with goods production resulting in people getting employed in the economy or in this case - returning to the original job before the pandemic. Therefore quantitative easing (QE) is positively correlated to a higher employment level* subject to NFP "True" figure of new jobs created, not in the aspect of 'Return to work'.
See the article snippet below affecting the US Market.
"On Labor Day, COVID-era expanded unemployment benefit programs expired. Those temporary programs included the $300 weekly bonus checks as well as coverage for those who are normally ineligible for unemployment insurance, like gig workers and the long-term unemployed. More than 11 million people were impacted by the cutoff, and roughly 7.5 million people lost their benefits entirely". - Source CNET.com/personal-finance/your/money
Inflation or Deflation?
inflation is likely to turn into deflation through (QE) where tapering pulls money out of the system, where less money (as compared to before) chasing the goods available, making every good less expensive. Great for consumers?!
Do you enjoy the setups?
*Professional analyst with 5+ years experience
*Focus on technical output not fundamentals
*Position and swing trades
*Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress.
If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment.
To all the followers, thank you for your continued support.
Thanks,
LVPA MMXXI
Hello Traders and Analysts,
Breakdown:
1. Note
2. Contents
3. Research breakdown
4. Education recap
5. Information on Lupa.
A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged short, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances.
Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. However, note - the overall trend is bullish.
Master Key for zones
- Red = Three Month
- Blue = Monthly
- Purple = weekly
- Scarlet [Red] - Four day
- Orange = Daily
- Green = 8 Hour, 16hour
- Grey = 4hour
- Pink = 1 hour
Bearish Channel upon a diagonal forming?
8Hour time frame.
Not looking trade this pattern as yet, due to the fact, the channel upon the higher time frames, looks to create a high probability of rejecting the 4400 mark and creating a further high.
However, keep in mind this scenario will form an opportunity for short term traders.
Update or original 8 hour
The Daily chart shows us a steep wedge formation - just like the three day chart.
Weekly Chart
The Fibonacci from the swing low - to the top of the market, which created our new "0" as the new all time high part of the structure.
The Continuation of the weekly imbalance had created a new area on the weekly, and bi-monthly timeframe - which offered a 0.236 Fibonacci retracement, indicating that the buying imbalances are still present. [This is now the weekly zone to add long positions].
Now the -0.27, -0.618 extension targets are reached.
The Wedge channel had begun and created a very strong channel with an effective structure of the sellers attempting to make an imbalance. The channel has now provided areas where price can pivot to.
The monthly has a future strong imbalance formed.
The three month indicates where price can be used for buying activity* So long as price reacts to the 61.8 & 70.5% levels.
See the Pathway where price can take us, using the probability of a bearish imbalance formation.
See the second chart proposing the outlook where the full completion occurs.
Adding in volume - to assist identifying the current up, down interest where buyers, sellers are at present.
This helps assist with searching for High Volume Nodes (HVN) which are peaks in volume at or around a price level, the operation behind this is buyers, sellers provide high volume, keeping price steady over a trading range e.g. 1-2weeks+ offering an area of fair value. This will help look for shorter term ranges to trade.
SPX VS VIX
Refer to the weekly negatively correlated SPX and associated Volatility index.
Vix Chart - please keep in mind that the VIX has correlation, causation is caused from the associated short term risk of the sentiment change within profit taking, impending policy changes, health warnings, war and other macro-factors.
With that being said, the risks presenting the wedge, come with a re-active level where the "low volatility below 20" has been supressed by the market, the risk implied that and the importance of hi-lighting the exposure to all time highs in the US , that and world markets a like has presented opportunities to sensitivity of prices to faulter.
Quantitative easing (QE) is where the increasing the money supply of the system, where the Central Bank creates new money and uses the money to make asset purchases. These asset purchases inject the new money into the system.
(QE) tapering will be seen on interest rates. The impact is almost immediate - affecting the sentiment. (QE) can be used where interest is at zero %, as the central bank(s) want to introduce more stimulus.
Conversely - when easing occurs, adoption of a new introduction is will send the interest rates shooting, the money to those who can offer the highest interest rates and this competition will send the interest rates skyrocketing. This directly affects the Equity market and the FX safe-haven pairs immediately.
Employment
In relation to employment is closely linked to that state of inflation or deflation in the economy. When there is excess money in the economy, the confidence is upbeat and CPI [consumer price index] aligns with goods production resulting in people getting employed in the economy or in this case - returning to the original job before the pandemic. Therefore quantitative easing (QE) is positively correlated to a higher employment level* subject to NFP "True" figure of new jobs created, not in the aspect of 'Return to work'.
See the article snippet below affecting the US Market.
"On Labor Day, COVID-era expanded unemployment benefit programs expired. Those temporary programs included the $300 weekly bonus checks as well as coverage for those who are normally ineligible for unemployment insurance, like gig workers and the long-term unemployed. More than 11 million people were impacted by the cutoff, and roughly 7.5 million people lost their benefits entirely". - Source CNET.com/personal-finance/your/money
Inflation or Deflation?
inflation is likely to turn into deflation through (QE) where tapering pulls money out of the system, where less money (as compared to before) chasing the goods available, making every good less expensive. Great for consumers?!
Do you enjoy the setups?
*Professional analyst with 5+ years experience
*Focus on technical output not fundamentals
*Position and swing trades
*Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress.
If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment.
To all the followers, thank you for your continued support.
Thanks,
LVPA MMXXI
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