SPY's historic relationship with the 10-year/3-month Treasuries

6 янв. 2023 г.

Things tend to not go so well for SPY when the 10-year/3-month Treasury chart crosses zero. Downtrend typically spans between 2 and 3 years, falling about 20-25% per year. It has been 2 months since we crossed the zero line again. A bottom for the treasuries chart has not yet been established.

6 янв. 2023 г.

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A better screenshot of the chart.

6 янв. 2023 г.

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Correction: Fixed the duration of the DotCom Crash.

11 июн. 2023 г.

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it's been a while, time for an update.

Still right on track with expectations. These short term rises can't happen without the bullish sentiment we're starting to see in discussion forums.

Added some color coding, details about interim highs after T10Y3MO fell below 0, but before SPY crashed, and details about the Federal Funds Rate to help illustrate its role in the relationship between these two charts.