SPY Pennant Flys Again

11 сент. 2019 г.

Chart says all. Going to new ATH? Tar box 302-304. Could eke out a nominal new ATH before throwover.
SPX saw 3026 before; maybe it can give us 3046 this time up. At 3K we have gotta be close to the end of this run IMO.

Divergences popping up, sector rotation, RSI fading; today they rotated out of NQ into RUT, buying 'bargains.'

Hell idk maybe it will just go up another 1K pips; this ain't advice, trade at ur own risk; GLTA!

11 сент. 2019 г.

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Breaking news Trump delays tariffs to 15 Oct, SPY and QQQ jump after hours.

12 сент. 2019 г.

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Another good day to be in calls. Miraculously closed out all just seconds before the 10:50 drop... better to be lucky than good!

13 сент. 2019 г.

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Friday looks like it could be the Big Day. I have ten SPY calls. Let's see if they make it!

13 сент. 2019 г.

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Disappointed us today I was sure it would bull and fade, it was mostly fade. Looks like a right shoulder got within a hair of the ATH. Need to confirm it.

16 сент. 2019 г.

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Trades to bottom of narrowing channel inside pennant. If holds then expect bounce back into target box. Closed shorts on the oil attack news- reaction to events is always brief and usually closes those gaps. Look for re-entry before FOMC.

16 сент. 2019 г.

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I see divergence with relative strength in NQ, RUT strongly suggest more price rotation, this time out of Dow into FAANGs and smallcaps. Expect a retest of highs.

16 сент. 2019 г.

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We got a shooting stat today resting on bottom TL of flag; opened bear spread positions on SPY/QQQ/DIA.

16 сент. 2019 г.

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*Shooting star

16 сент. 2019 г.

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B/c it could still fill the gap on Tues, did not go hog wild, 10 contracts each. Shorting the Friday dailies against October ITM contracts.

17 сент. 2019 г.

Сделка активна

Crawls along just below the TL of pennant. Bullish action is fragile now but did show support through Monday's oil field attacks. Bought bear spreads on SPY + QQQ.

18 сент. 2019 г.

Сделка закрыта вручную

R/R is extremely poor now; anything can happen at 2PM. Pure gamble now; showed a small gain in position so closed all out, defensive sit on fence. Holding 1k GE long as only position, short 10 01Nov $10 Calls.

19 сент. 2019 г.

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Touched the target box twice and rejected. Throwover imminent IMO.

19 сент. 2019 г.

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NB: Extend the lower TL of flag and notice index trades just under it, a failed retracement rally. Expect one more try to break up before rollover.

2 окт. 2019 г.

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Breakdown is part of a larger pattern; a harmonic Butterfly.
SPX should find support near 2720, when DJIA hits 24224 target.

8 окт. 2019 г.

Сделка активна

FYI folks closed the position waiting for re-entry. Any gap down stands chance of getting filled and this was a big one, driven by 'trade fears' and global 'fake news', most of which is perpetrated by The Donald. SO, likely to get at least some retracement. I bought some AMD & GE in covered calls while we wait. Not ready to buy calls just yet but it was time to close out some puts for ~30% gains. Not bad for a day's work!

See my related post on Harmonic Theory. Still not sure if that will pan out or whether we get bounce off the lower TL back into triangle. It is still a Bull Market for the time being and I still expect higher prices EOY, but it's gonna be a rocky road IMO. Very chancy here!

For this particular idea; notice we are trading just above the rising TL of bottom channel; this COULD be a retest of lows and a higher move MIGHT be around the corner, or at least an upper channel test if it becomes range-bound. Nothing is certain; take what you can get when you can get it!