Possible SPY Outcomes - Jan/Feb 2022

23 янв. 2022 г.

To create these prices and their respective labels, the following indicators were used:
Volume Price Profile
Fibonacci Retracement
Consolidation Channels
Potential MACD lengths

Outcome #1 in RED, Outcome #2 in YELLOW

Overall, I have the sentiment that it will continue lower, at some point. There are an infinite number of factors that could affect when, and how fast it does fall (-10% next week, -30% over next two months etc.) This is just to help map my personal game plan.

#1: Bull Market Reversal Price: This is the price I have decided that I personally will use as an indicator that a correction is over, and there should not be any huge crash in the near future (excluding news, events). Approaching this point, I would chart something that is more bullish to prepare for that.

#2: Support Ranges: Of course as SPY dumps (if it does) it will not be a linear path. There will be locations in every price where there is some support met. The ranges marked are locations where the support may be its strongest, and likely good areas to exit short positions.

#3: Gap to Fill: There was a 7% increase in 2.5 weeks in this area, with 2% of this happening over the weekend. Other traders/ investors could expect this gap to be filled before any major consolidation or reversal. Just something to keep in mind.

#4: The red line is where most volume by price is since Nov. 2020. If it goes this low, I'd expect some good support in this area because of it, and the simple fact that it is 400 (a big psychological support.)

Some other possible outcomes are: consolidation from SPY Support #1 and Spy Resistance #1 for as long as needed, tech earnings are crazy good and the market goes full blown bullish, or very long term consolidation in a much larger range until their is confidence in the market again or it loses steam.