Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for July 3, 2025

🔮 Nightly SPY / SPX Scenarios for July 3, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍

📉 U.S. Private Payrolls Surround Weakness
The ADP report showed a drop of 33,000 private-sector jobs in June, the first decline in over two years, reflecting businesses holding back hiring amid trade uncertainty. However, layoffs remain low, signaling no acute stress yet

📊 Markets Braced for NFP Caution
Markets are wary ahead of this morning’s Non‑Farm Payroll (NFP) release—currently projected at +115,000 jobs and 4.3% unemployment—based on indications of labor-market cooling from weak ADP numbers

💵 Canadian Dollar Strengthens
The loonie jumped 0.4% as investors adjust expectations for broader central-bank dovishness, driven by the weak U.S. jobs signals and optimism over a revived U.S.–Canada trade dialogue

📊 Key Data Releases 📊
📅 Thursday, July 3:

8:30 AM ET – Non‑Farm Payrolls (June):
Forecast: +115,000; Previous: +139,000 (May). Watching for signs of sustained job-growth slowdown.

8:30 AM ET – Unemployment Rate:
Forecast: 4.3%, up from 4.2% in May. A rise may increase odds of rate cuts.

8:30 AM ET – Average Hourly Earnings (MoM):
Forecast: +0.3%; prior: +0.4%. Cooling wages would ease inflation pressures.

8:30 AM ET – Initial & Continuing Jobless Claims:
Track week-to-week stability or worsening of labor-market conditions.

9:45 AM ET – Services PMI (June, flash):
Monitor for signs of slowing in U.S. service-sector activity.

10:00 AM ET – ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (June, flash):
Forecast: 50.8. A reading below 50 suggests contraction in services.

⚠️ Disclaimer:
For informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice. Consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.

📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #jobs #Fed #labor #technicalanalysis