$SPY / $SPX Scenarios — Week of Oct 6 → Oct 10, 2025

🔮 SPY / SPX Scenarios — Week of Oct 6 → Oct 10, 2025 🔮

🌍 Market-Moving Headlines
🚩 Shutdown overhang: Some data (Trade, Jobless Claims, Budget) remain at risk of delay; markets lean on Fed tone instead.
📉 Fed-heavy week: Nearly every regional president and governor is on deck — tone from Powell (Thu) + FOMC Minutes (Wed) = the core catalyst.
💻 Earnings prep: Q3 pre-announcements begin — AAPL MSFT NVDA remain leadership barometers.
💵 Rates & positioning: 10Y yields and USD remain key drivers into mid-month CPI/PPI stretch.

📊 Key Data & Events (ET)

Mon 10/6
⏰ 5:00 PM — Jeff Schmid (Kansas City Fed) speech

Tue 10/7
⏰ 🚩 8:30 AM — U.S. Trade Deficit (Aug) [subject to delay]
⏰ 3:00 PM — Consumer Credit (Aug)

🗣️ Fed Speakers — Bostic (10:00), Bowman (10:05, 8:35, 8:45), Miran (10:45, 4:05), Kashkari (11:30)

Wed 10/8
⏰ 🚩 2:00 PM — FOMC Minutes (September Meeting)
🗣️ Fed Speakers — Musalem (9:20), Barr (9:30, 5:45), Kashkari (3:15), Goolsbee (7:15)

Thu 10/9
⏰ 🚩 8:30 AM — Initial Jobless Claims (Oct 4) [subject to delay]
⏰ 🚩 8:30 AM — Fed Chair Powell remarks (opening keynote)
⏰ 10:00 AM — Wholesale Inventories (Aug)
🗣️ Fed Speakers — Bowman (8:35, 8:45, 3:45), Kashkari + Barr (12:45), Daly (4:10, 9:40 PM)

Fri 10/10
⏰ 🚩 10:00 AM — Consumer Sentiment (Prelim, Oct)
⏰ 2:00 PM — U.S. Federal Budget (Sept) [subject to delay]
🗣️ Fed Speakers — Goolsbee (9:45)

⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice.

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