Spy Possible Outcomes Short/long
First thing i want to say is we've had a crazy month and anything is possible so dont take any of my ideas as financial advice. im only 16 with 2 very crazy years of experience.
1. . My first idea, and the one I believe in the most, is that we will bounce up and test the 389.46 level, and with all of the events leading up to that and October being right around the corner, we will most likely rally next week up to that level and then fall back before October (worst month for stocks other than september.) With momentum, I expect us to capitulate and fall straight down to 321.79 at the end of October, leading to the end of midterms, allowing us to bounce and rally through the winter, leading back into the 2023 chaos. After that, I have no idea what will happen; I haven't looked far enough, but this will be around the time ill be looking to buy indivual stocks again.
2.The second idea is we break through that 389.46 level and test that higher trend line around 4.12-4.15 where i expect us to reject near end of october also leading into midterms where we would then have the so said crash to 293.96 (2019 Highs) from november leading into beginning of 2023 having the dark winter everyone was talking about couple months ago.
3.Third and final idea in mind is we break the 398.46 level and we trade sideways unti lmarch of next year forming the right shoulder for the "crash" in march. This idea would kill all option premium for the next 6 months and would be the definion of max pain for option traders.
1 is my go to idea that i believe has the highest probability.
2. is a controversial one because midterms are expected to be bullish for the market and the market is going to be doing the opposite but with all the overseas new could still be a possibility.
3. Also a very controversial idea just threw it in because of the head and shoulders possibility.
I Sold out of basically all my short position i'll be scaling back in through this expected rally.
All these ideas are just ideas so dont take them to heart and please leave any opinions in the comments i will be reading everyones thoughts and criticism as i am just ur average teenager. time to do my homework :)
Keep it respectful and happy trading everyone!
1. . My first idea, and the one I believe in the most, is that we will bounce up and test the 389.46 level, and with all of the events leading up to that and October being right around the corner, we will most likely rally next week up to that level and then fall back before October (worst month for stocks other than september.) With momentum, I expect us to capitulate and fall straight down to 321.79 at the end of October, leading to the end of midterms, allowing us to bounce and rally through the winter, leading back into the 2023 chaos. After that, I have no idea what will happen; I haven't looked far enough, but this will be around the time ill be looking to buy indivual stocks again.
2.The second idea is we break through that 389.46 level and test that higher trend line around 4.12-4.15 where i expect us to reject near end of october also leading into midterms where we would then have the so said crash to 293.96 (2019 Highs) from november leading into beginning of 2023 having the dark winter everyone was talking about couple months ago.
3.Third and final idea in mind is we break the 398.46 level and we trade sideways unti lmarch of next year forming the right shoulder for the "crash" in march. This idea would kill all option premium for the next 6 months and would be the definion of max pain for option traders.
1 is my go to idea that i believe has the highest probability.
2. is a controversial one because midterms are expected to be bullish for the market and the market is going to be doing the opposite but with all the overseas new could still be a possibility.
3. Also a very controversial idea just threw it in because of the head and shoulders possibility.
I Sold out of basically all my short position i'll be scaling back in through this expected rally.
All these ideas are just ideas so dont take them to heart and please leave any opinions in the comments i will be reading everyones thoughts and criticism as i am just ur average teenager. time to do my homework :)
Keep it respectful and happy trading everyone!
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