Putting the rotation into context

23 нояб. 2021 г.

Growth lost about 1% today, while value gained 0,6%. So instead of a pure sell off we rather have a rotation at hand. But lets take a view from 30.000 foot above and put that rotation into context: Starting 2020 the growth/value ratio increased about 50% as illustrated in the chart, what renders today's retracement very marginal. The reason behind the move is straight forward: Rate hike expectations are moving up and hit the highest level sind March 2020 today (red line). Should the correlation between federal fund quote future contracts and the growth/value ratio stay intact, and price pressures further increase then growth is certainly in for a quite a ride. On the other hand side the short growth/long value trade is a well known "widow maker". Time will tell.