SUI 4H — Deviation long into unlock risk (mean-reversion setup)

Got a fresh long signal from my 4H EMA deviation strategy on SUIUSDT (Bybit).
After a persistent downtrend from the 2.3–2.0 area, price has flushed into my lower deviation / demand zone and is now extended from the main EMAs on several timeframes.



On the chart (#4h):

– Price is trading well below the 4H and 1D EMAs, Dev% on multiple TFs shows strong extension away from the mean.
– We just printed another local low with a cluster of my multi-TF “exhaustion” signals, right on the lower ATR band.
– Above price sit the first liquidity pockets around 1.66–1.69 and then a larger supply/FVG zone near 1.75–1.83, aligned with the 4H EMA ribbon.
– I treat this move as a liquidation / unlock front-run leg inside a still-resilient higher-TF range for SUI.

Strategy stats (for this 4H deviation system)

31 trades, all longs:
– Winrate ≈ 83.9% (26W / 5L)
– Avg win ≈ +12.5%, avg loss ≈ −6.6% → avg R:R ≈ 2.37
– Avg holding time ≈ 24 bars on #4h (about 4 days)



So the system is designed to take oversold 4H swings and ride the mean-reversion back into the EMA band / supply zones over 2–5 days.

Trade plan (swing 2–5 days)

– Entry: around 1.60–1.62 (current long triggered near 1.61).
– Main target: 1.75–1.77 — first 4H supply zone and mid of the previous distribution block.
– Extended target: 1.82–1.83 — upper boundary of the 4H supply cluster and confluence with higher EMA/ATR levels.
– Invalidation: 4H close below 1.48. That break would mean the current demand zone failed and I step aside.

This gives an R:R of roughly 1:2 from entry to the extended target.

Fundamental snapshot

SUI is still holding in the upper part of its yearly range despite the recent correction. Over the last 30 days:

– TVL around ~$3.03B (≈$1.64B bridged, ~$1.39B native), with strong DEX volume (~$383.5M/day) and perps volume (~$144.3M/day).
– Narrative tailwinds: upcoming USDsui native stablecoin from Bridge (Stripe-backed), institutional rails via Crypto.com custody/liquidity, and the Mysticeti v2 core upgrade from Mysten Labs.
– Headwinds: notable November unlocks (~$146.6M pool), TVL pullback of ~15% from the October peak and sector-wide risk-off in L1/alt space.

Net read: structurally positive fundamentals and growing ecosystem, but short-term risk is higher due to unlocks and derivatives positioning — ideal conditions for sharp but tradeable mean-reversion moves.

Alternative scenario

If unlock selling and risk-off pressure continue and SUI starts closing 4H candles below 1.48, I’ll treat this as a deeper leg toward the next demand around 1.40–1.35 and will wait for a new deviation signal rather than averaging down.

Not financial advice — just a structured 4H deviation long based on my system stats and current SUI fundamentals.