Strong resistance at the 9.60 baht area. Support at the 9 baht area.
Set50 has been under pressure because of the Thai economy. Tourism made up 22% of the GDP in 2019 before the pandemic, so appetite for Thai equities has been tainted.
We can see a descending triangle forming - which indicates that the bears could step in. If it closes above 9.50 on the weekly it should invalidate the trend and the descending triangle could be signalling a reversal pattern. However, if it breaks lower we could test previous support levels, first one at 8.60 and the next at 8.05.
The direction is chooses to move is highly dependant on the economy. Thailand shutting down major economic hubs and closing businesses due to the 3rd wave of Covid could potentially dent appetite further for Thai Equities. Long term I like Thai equites because its economy will be forced to adapt to the post pandemic era, and should benefit from the boom in South East Asia. I expect massive growth opportunities in South East Asia, and i think investors will flock to this region when they start seeing the value.
For long term investors, this may be an opportunity to buy some excellent companies at discount prices. If the Thai baht continues to strengthen and Thailand moves away from the reliance of tourism, there could be major upside gains in the years to come.
I have a position in TDEX with an average purchase price of 8.42.
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