TEL Symmetrical Triangle or Bull Flag Comparison

2 дек.

Is this a Symmetrical Triangle or Bull Flag?

Here is how we decide. The triangle is in white, the flag is in pink.

Symmetrical Triangle:

• higher lows and lower highs, representing a period of consolidation and indecision.
  
• The breakout direction typically depends on the preceding trend
  

Bull Flag:

• A bull flag appears after a strong upward move (the “flagpole”) and consolidates downward in a parallel or slightly sloping trend.
  
• It signifies a continuation pattern, with a breakout expected to align with the prior uptrend.
  

Analysis
The prior move has seen strong upward momentum (55%, 44%, 33%), which supports the idea of a bull flag if the triangle is sloping slightly downward.

However, if the triangle is symmetrical with equal pressure from buyers and sellers (not tilted), it’s likely a symmetrical triangle signaling indecision. I believe this is tilted upwards, signifying bullish. This is confirmed by the fact that net volume is $11 million above sell volume at time of writing.

If it’s breaking above the triangle now and aligns with my target of $0.009, the breakout could validate it as a bull flag continuation pattern.



2. Key Factors Supporting the Analysis:

Bounce off the 100-day Moving Average:

A bounce off a significant moving average like the 100-day MA is typically bullish, indicating that buyers stepped in at a key support level.

Breakout Above Triangle:

Early signs of breakout above the triangle suggest bullish momentum building up. If confirmed with volume, this supports the bull flag hypothesis.

Upcoming Catalyst (Public Hearing):

The public hearing for Telbank approval on December 5 could drive speculative buying, adding bullish momentum. There may be a small sell the news effect, but if the hearing is positive this won't last for long.



Short-Term Target ($0.009):

If this really is a bull flag, the measured move target can be estimated by the height of the flagpole (the previous upward move) added to the breakout point.


Risks to Watch:

• False breakouts are common in symmetrical triangles. Watch volume closely to confirm the breakout.
  
• If the price falls back below the 100-day MA, it could invalidate the bullish setup.
  

Summary:

Given the price action and catalyst, the pattern appears more like a bull flag continuation. Monitor the breakout level and volume for confirmation. If the pattern holds, the short-term target of $0.009 seems reasonable.