TLT Roadmap Dec 2023
Yields are likely in early stages of significant multi-month retrace lower into summer 2024
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Good startЗаметка
Early stageЗаметка
More pulling back aheadЗаметка
Should start turning upЗаметка
Very good price action following the expected pathЗаметка
I made a mistake with the instrument here, instead of TLT should have used IEF as 10 yr yields will fall faster than 30 yr yieldsЗаметка
It is highly likely that this upswing starting Oct 2023 extends into Oct 2025. Obviously no straight line but some correction starting Aug into Oct 2024Заметка
Entertaining to say the leastЗаметка
Market participants are fully imposing the Trump trade across asset markets. This most likely will form a triangle (currently D wave forming to the downside) before new highs in yields/lows in bondsЗаметка
Bonds setting initial low on that decline likely this weekЗаметка
JP was a bit hesitant yesterday which is incrementally hawkish (as was Logan). I was very confident that this will happen once DJT wins. More cuts will further destabilize yieldsЗаметка
Probably quick rally this weekЗаметка
Market was already sniffing the appointment of Scott Bessent as Treasury Sec as an outspoken deficit hawk
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