MARKETS week ahead: April 14 – 20
Last week in the news
Inflation fears are for one more time those to shape investors confidence. Posted US inflation data during the previous week, impacted negative sentiment on the market, and made US Treasury yields move to the higher grounds, while US equities were pushed to the downside. For one more week in a row geopolitical risks were pushing the price of gold to new ATH. Uncertainty over the forthcoming Bitcoin halving impacts higher volatility on the crypto market. However, regardless of current higher volatility, BTC futures maturing in December 2025 reached the level of 80K for the first time in history.
The pivotal point on financial markets was a release of the US inflation data for March. As posted, the inflation in March was 0.4% for the month, which brought it to the level of 3.5% on a yearly basis. The data was higher from the market forecast of 3.4%. In line with significantly increased non-farm payrolls posted two weeks ago, data scared markets that the inflation could further accelerate which would impact Fed's decision not to cut rates during this year, or, most probably, that there will be less than three cuts during the year. The FOMC meeting Minutes were released during the week, where it has been revealed that Fed officials were looking for more convincing data in order to trigger rate cuts. Economists and analysts are currently quite divided on this topic, considering that this question is not at all easy to answer. Larry Fink, CEO of largest investment fund BlackRock, commented on potential Fed`s move, noting a possibility that there will be two rate cuts this year, however, the estimate of 2% targeted inflation will be missed. He sees high probability that the Fed will cut rates, even as inflation remains elevated. Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase noted several challenges for the world and the US economy, noting geopolitical risks and “persistent inflation pressures” but still perceives many economic indicators as favorable.
While US markets are concerned over the potential for rate cuts, investors in European markets are heating up sentiment for the first rate cut by the ECB in June this year. The ECB held a policy meeting during the previous week, where rates were left unchanged, as widely expected. However, comments from ECB officials heated the market expectation that the first rate cut by the ECB might occur in June this year, in case that inflation continues its down-track.
The pressure on the chip industry continues. As news is reporting, Chinese officials issued a directive, where it is requested by Chinese telecom systems not to use any foreign chips within their products. All processors made by foreign companies should be replaced by the year 2027 in China. This news was first posted by the Wall Street Journal, which specifically mentioned companies AMD and Intel, which will be hit by such a decision by Chinese authorities. Share prices of these two companies significantly dropped after the news was published.
Crypto market cap
Bitcoin halving is coming during the end of the week ahead. However, this represents only one side of the current market nervousness. Investors are highly concerned regarding the potential for Fed's rate cut, as well as, ongoing geopolitical uncertainties. The combination of these factors impacted a significant drop in the value of the crypto coins, but also other financial markets were affected, like US equities and US Treasuries. It could be expected that the same combination of factors will continue to impact markets for some time in the short future period. However, what is optimistic about the crypto market is that BTC futures maturing in December 2025 for the first time in history reached the level of 80K. This is another significant milestone for BTC, as it shows current market sentiment that BTC can only grow in value in the future. Certainly, whether this will be the case is about to be seen. For the moment, total crypto market capitalization decreased by 5%, where 121B was wiped out from the market. This time a significant portion of altcoins lost in value, where major coins were participating with roughly 40% in this drop. Usually majors are the ones that are leading the market to one side, however, this time was different. Daily trading volumes were also significantly increased from the week before, reaching even 250B on a daily basis, from 131B traded a week before. Total crypto market capitalization increase from the end of the previous year, currently stands at 705B, which represents a 43% surge from the beginning of this year.
BTC and ETH had another volatile week, however, the majority of altcoins were the ones that lost the most during the week. Regardless of the fact that BTC for one more time tested levels above 70K, the coin is ending the week by more than 2% lower from the week before, where total weekly loss in value was $28,2B. ETH`s market cap dropped by 18B on a weekly basis, which is around 4.5%. The list of altcoins who lost in value above $ 1B is significant for the first time in many weeks. XRP, Bitcoin Cash and Cardano all lost above $ 4B in value. However, one of the most significant drops among altcoins was with Solana. This coin lost almost $ 15B in value during the week, dropping it by around 19%. Significant losers in a relative terms were Uniswap, with a drop of more than 35% on a weekly level, OMG Network was also down by 30%, Filecoin lost almost 30%, while Maker was down by 26% within a single week. Other altcoins also lost between 10% and 20% in value. The only coin that gained was Tether, however, through an increase of its coins in circulation by 0.5%.
Although it was a red week for the majority of altcoins, still, for the majority of circulating coins it was a green week. Filecoin, although significantly lost in value, still managed to add 0.9% new coins to the market. Polkadot added 0.3% more circulating coins, while Polygon`s total coins were higher by 0.2%. Majority of other altcoins added around 0.1% of new coins during the week.
Crypto futures market
The crypto futures market had bad news and also good news during the previous week. The volatility on the spot market continued for the third week in a row, and so were the crypto short term futures. In this sense BTC short term futures were traded down around 0.9%, while ETH`s ended the week 3% lower from the end of the week before. Still, regardless of the short drop in short term futures, the major development occurred with longer term ones, which for both BTC and ETH ended the week higher from the week before.
BTC long term futures ended the week by 2.8% higher from the week before, but the most important news is that for the first time in history, futures maturing in December 2025 reached the price above 80K. This is the most significant development, as it shows that investors still believe that BTC will rise in value during the course of time. Futures maturing in December this year ended the week at price $75.090, which is also a new weekly high for this maturity.
ETH long term futures also ended the week with a positive sentiment. They were traded around 5.8% higher from the week before. Futures maturing in December this year were last traded at price $3.720 and those maturing a year later closed the week at $3.877.
Inflation fears are for one more time those to shape investors confidence. Posted US inflation data during the previous week, impacted negative sentiment on the market, and made US Treasury yields move to the higher grounds, while US equities were pushed to the downside. For one more week in a row geopolitical risks were pushing the price of gold to new ATH. Uncertainty over the forthcoming Bitcoin halving impacts higher volatility on the crypto market. However, regardless of current higher volatility, BTC futures maturing in December 2025 reached the level of 80K for the first time in history.
The pivotal point on financial markets was a release of the US inflation data for March. As posted, the inflation in March was 0.4% for the month, which brought it to the level of 3.5% on a yearly basis. The data was higher from the market forecast of 3.4%. In line with significantly increased non-farm payrolls posted two weeks ago, data scared markets that the inflation could further accelerate which would impact Fed's decision not to cut rates during this year, or, most probably, that there will be less than three cuts during the year. The FOMC meeting Minutes were released during the week, where it has been revealed that Fed officials were looking for more convincing data in order to trigger rate cuts. Economists and analysts are currently quite divided on this topic, considering that this question is not at all easy to answer. Larry Fink, CEO of largest investment fund BlackRock, commented on potential Fed`s move, noting a possibility that there will be two rate cuts this year, however, the estimate of 2% targeted inflation will be missed. He sees high probability that the Fed will cut rates, even as inflation remains elevated. Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase noted several challenges for the world and the US economy, noting geopolitical risks and “persistent inflation pressures” but still perceives many economic indicators as favorable.
While US markets are concerned over the potential for rate cuts, investors in European markets are heating up sentiment for the first rate cut by the ECB in June this year. The ECB held a policy meeting during the previous week, where rates were left unchanged, as widely expected. However, comments from ECB officials heated the market expectation that the first rate cut by the ECB might occur in June this year, in case that inflation continues its down-track.
The pressure on the chip industry continues. As news is reporting, Chinese officials issued a directive, where it is requested by Chinese telecom systems not to use any foreign chips within their products. All processors made by foreign companies should be replaced by the year 2027 in China. This news was first posted by the Wall Street Journal, which specifically mentioned companies AMD and Intel, which will be hit by such a decision by Chinese authorities. Share prices of these two companies significantly dropped after the news was published.
Crypto market cap
Bitcoin halving is coming during the end of the week ahead. However, this represents only one side of the current market nervousness. Investors are highly concerned regarding the potential for Fed's rate cut, as well as, ongoing geopolitical uncertainties. The combination of these factors impacted a significant drop in the value of the crypto coins, but also other financial markets were affected, like US equities and US Treasuries. It could be expected that the same combination of factors will continue to impact markets for some time in the short future period. However, what is optimistic about the crypto market is that BTC futures maturing in December 2025 for the first time in history reached the level of 80K. This is another significant milestone for BTC, as it shows current market sentiment that BTC can only grow in value in the future. Certainly, whether this will be the case is about to be seen. For the moment, total crypto market capitalization decreased by 5%, where 121B was wiped out from the market. This time a significant portion of altcoins lost in value, where major coins were participating with roughly 40% in this drop. Usually majors are the ones that are leading the market to one side, however, this time was different. Daily trading volumes were also significantly increased from the week before, reaching even 250B on a daily basis, from 131B traded a week before. Total crypto market capitalization increase from the end of the previous year, currently stands at 705B, which represents a 43% surge from the beginning of this year.
BTC and ETH had another volatile week, however, the majority of altcoins were the ones that lost the most during the week. Regardless of the fact that BTC for one more time tested levels above 70K, the coin is ending the week by more than 2% lower from the week before, where total weekly loss in value was $28,2B. ETH`s market cap dropped by 18B on a weekly basis, which is around 4.5%. The list of altcoins who lost in value above $ 1B is significant for the first time in many weeks. XRP, Bitcoin Cash and Cardano all lost above $ 4B in value. However, one of the most significant drops among altcoins was with Solana. This coin lost almost $ 15B in value during the week, dropping it by around 19%. Significant losers in a relative terms were Uniswap, with a drop of more than 35% on a weekly level, OMG Network was also down by 30%, Filecoin lost almost 30%, while Maker was down by 26% within a single week. Other altcoins also lost between 10% and 20% in value. The only coin that gained was Tether, however, through an increase of its coins in circulation by 0.5%.
Although it was a red week for the majority of altcoins, still, for the majority of circulating coins it was a green week. Filecoin, although significantly lost in value, still managed to add 0.9% new coins to the market. Polkadot added 0.3% more circulating coins, while Polygon`s total coins were higher by 0.2%. Majority of other altcoins added around 0.1% of new coins during the week.
Crypto futures market
The crypto futures market had bad news and also good news during the previous week. The volatility on the spot market continued for the third week in a row, and so were the crypto short term futures. In this sense BTC short term futures were traded down around 0.9%, while ETH`s ended the week 3% lower from the end of the week before. Still, regardless of the short drop in short term futures, the major development occurred with longer term ones, which for both BTC and ETH ended the week higher from the week before.
BTC long term futures ended the week by 2.8% higher from the week before, but the most important news is that for the first time in history, futures maturing in December 2025 reached the price above 80K. This is the most significant development, as it shows that investors still believe that BTC will rise in value during the course of time. Futures maturing in December this year ended the week at price $75.090, which is also a new weekly high for this maturity.
ETH long term futures also ended the week with a positive sentiment. They were traded around 5.8% higher from the week before. Futures maturing in December this year were last traded at price $3.720 and those maturing a year later closed the week at $3.877.
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