TSLA

23 апр.

Tesla might be a good buy.

I must be honest, I didn't doo too much due diligence. All I know is that electric cars from other manufacturers aren't what they claim to be, and I also know that TSLA p/e ratio is at a historic low, and at the same time earnings are growing.

Part of my investment in this stock is the fact that P/E ratio can be pushed waaay waay higher than 32 by the cult followers.

It is a risky bet but there is a lot of upside potential so I'm taking the risk.

23 апр.

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Also keep in mind that we may have a market crash in general, so it may take some time for this bet to pay off.

23 апр.

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I didn't buy yet, I will make the final update here when I make my purchase.

23 апр.

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I bought.

23 апр.

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Also the macro calculation is simple.
Regardless of the total car sales, the % of electric vehicles is so low that it is bound to go up in the future. If there are 5% of electric cars in the area and 1% move from gasoline to electric, that is a 1% reduction in fossil fuel based vehicles and 20% increase in electric vehicles.

We cannot compare big established markets to small emerging markets.
If you want great returns you need to look at where the puck is going.

23 апр.

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And even though there were problems with Tesla sales in USA, i the EU I see them more and more. And gasoline car prices are so absurd that buying a Tesla is not too much more expensive. Especially with all the benefits that companies get.

24 апр.

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Let me be perfectly clear, before I made this prediction, I didn't know that less than 24 hours later there will be an announcment by Elon.

I didn't include any of that in my analysis.

25 апр.

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I have no Idea what will happen with the economy in general with this Unrealised capital gains tax proposal from Biden.

I will keep my positions but it could get ugly AF.

25 апр.

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I have swapped half of my MSTR position for Tesla. Not because MSTR is bad but because I've already gained alot there and I think there is more room for Tesla right now.

I will make a leveraged bet on Bitcoin once I conclude that consolidation is over and bull-run is continuing. Right now I believe that there will be some reflexivity around Tesla stock and therefore there is a lot of room for growth.

1 мая

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A little bit extra on Chinese EVs
youtube.com/watch?v=8HpkDUWAKFM

1 мая

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I also want to add that what most analysts in the car industry are missing is the reason why some vehicles are sold more and some less.
Cars need to be repaired and every new model requires adjustments by the car repair shops, especially EVs.
There is a good reason why WV is the best car to buy in Europe but the worst in United States. There are plenty of WV parts laying around in Europe and repair shops know how to work on them.
EVs are more of a tech rather than just mechanical products.
Many gasoline cars also have a lot of tech these days but if you have problems with electronics, it will be sent to a specialist and it won't be cheap.

By this logic, right now, every EV requires a specialist and is expensive to repair. Granted, they need less repairs than IC cars. Car repair shops will have to adjust to this and start educating themselves about fixing EVs. They will first choose the most popular cars with customers that can pay well. This will be Tesla...

Teslas main problem with car manufacturing and selling in general is the fact that they had no fleet (the fleet is currently very young). VW and other big manufacturers earn a lot of money on the existing fleet. This was also their main argument against Tesla.

Well, in the EV world, Tesla has the biggest fleet.
The main arguments against Tesla from other big manufacturers have now turned to haunt them.