TSLA Breakout - Real or Fake?

13 июл.

TSLA has been on a huge run since bottoming out before earnings earlier in the year, the bottom just so happened to be right on the major uptrend line from 2020. It has rocketed all the way back up to the top end of the major downtrend from ATH in 2021. Not only that, it has broken above and had a weekly close above. This is a 2.5 year downtrend, if the breakout is real it should lead to significant upside, maybe all the way back to ATH.

I believe this move is largely due to a massive short squeeze. When short squeezes end, there is often a sudden drop because there are no more shorts being forced to cover. We a big drop last week that was largely attributed to an article about a robo taxi delay. I think that's just a bunch of noise, it was always going to have a hard correction after a move like that. The headline is just used to help facilitate the move down. The real question is, does it keep going now or is it a fakeout.

TSLA bounced right on a retest of that major downtrend line, but we'll have to see if it can sustain value up here. If it is a fakeout, that could lead to a quick move back to the lower trendline. Otherwise, it should be a big move up that lasts for months or longer. First upside target from here is the January 2021 ATH around $300, then ATH.