$TSLA Tesla Pattern After Product Launch
Back in 2012, I was actively researching Tesla, investing in the stock, and charting the patterns here at TradingView. The pattern I found was that people were concerned the Model-S wasn't going to work as planned or they would have production problems. Tesla was still such a new company in 2012 to most and the price point for the Model-S car was much higher than originally planned. It took 6 months of production and sales for investors to take note and then the market capitalization of Tesla started to jump on the announcement of the larger SUV (the most profitable and popular segment of the auto business at the time), the Model-X.
What I noticed here is that the price was "IN THE RANGE" of where the stock had been trading for the previous 2+ years after the Model-S had started to go into full production. The same is true now with the Model-3 which is a very similar situation: It is similar because the "pricing of the vehicle" and the "doubt" of investors have about the success of the product and the uncertainty about how to value the company given what they saw in the product at the time.
For the Model-S, Elon Musk put up a guarantee for a floor value of the vehicle that he would personally guarantee, backed up by Tesla too, of course. This "price guarantee" added to the risk that Elon and Tesla could go under if the car didn't perform as promised.
I labeled March of 2018 as the time when "mass production" was in full swing because my Model-3 was delivered in March and I was near the top of the list since I had a Tesla already and had an order for two Model-3's put in the first minute of the first day they were available.
As each day passes and Tesla delivers more vehicles and as we wait to hear the quarterly report, investors are braced and hoping for good news while bears are positioned and hoping for bad news. It's a real war going on between bulls and bears in Tesla. Each day there are battles in Twitter as each side proclaims that they will win based on their view of the outcome. The most negative bears declare that Tesla will announce bankruptcy imminently. Tesla is without doubt the most controversial company right now, which is amazing given what is going on at Facebook at the moment.
Whoever thought that investing was easy hasn't looked at Tesla lately.
What is different this time in 2018 versus 2013 when Tesla rocketed from $30 to $100 after the Model-S release? Notably, competition on the horizon from bigger companies with deep pockets that can put up some kind of electric car to take away some of Tesla's market share. Also, Tesla's market capitalization is above $50 Billion now, which is far more than the $5 Billion back then.
Let me know what your opinion is and stay tuned to this page as the sales and earnings come in very soon. Early October is when we will see the monthly sales and deliveries. November 5th is when we will get earnings (or losses) announced and Elon had promised a profit at the last quarterly conference call and also profits every quarter from there going forward.
So there is a LOT AT STAKE here.
You can see the pattern - now tell me if you agree or not.
Best,
Tim
12:45AM EST 9/25/2018
What I noticed here is that the price was "IN THE RANGE" of where the stock had been trading for the previous 2+ years after the Model-S had started to go into full production. The same is true now with the Model-3 which is a very similar situation: It is similar because the "pricing of the vehicle" and the "doubt" of investors have about the success of the product and the uncertainty about how to value the company given what they saw in the product at the time.
For the Model-S, Elon Musk put up a guarantee for a floor value of the vehicle that he would personally guarantee, backed up by Tesla too, of course. This "price guarantee" added to the risk that Elon and Tesla could go under if the car didn't perform as promised.
I labeled March of 2018 as the time when "mass production" was in full swing because my Model-3 was delivered in March and I was near the top of the list since I had a Tesla already and had an order for two Model-3's put in the first minute of the first day they were available.
As each day passes and Tesla delivers more vehicles and as we wait to hear the quarterly report, investors are braced and hoping for good news while bears are positioned and hoping for bad news. It's a real war going on between bulls and bears in Tesla. Each day there are battles in Twitter as each side proclaims that they will win based on their view of the outcome. The most negative bears declare that Tesla will announce bankruptcy imminently. Tesla is without doubt the most controversial company right now, which is amazing given what is going on at Facebook at the moment.
Whoever thought that investing was easy hasn't looked at Tesla lately.
What is different this time in 2018 versus 2013 when Tesla rocketed from $30 to $100 after the Model-S release? Notably, competition on the horizon from bigger companies with deep pockets that can put up some kind of electric car to take away some of Tesla's market share. Also, Tesla's market capitalization is above $50 Billion now, which is far more than the $5 Billion back then.
Let me know what your opinion is and stay tuned to this page as the sales and earnings come in very soon. Early October is when we will see the monthly sales and deliveries. November 5th is when we will get earnings (or losses) announced and Elon had promised a profit at the last quarterly conference call and also profits every quarter from there going forward.
So there is a LOT AT STAKE here.
You can see the pattern - now tell me if you agree or not.
Best,
Tim
12:45AM EST 9/25/2018
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