UK Bond Steps and Forces

19 мар.

This is my perspective on the forces that might apply on the UK 10Y Gilt. It can climb along the red rectangles to fall down to the big green or if the first red rejects it or the bottom arc attracts it, we might see support in that area. The vertical green is a special one where unusual or special circumstances and price action might occur, either higher volatility or sudden shift in sentiment.

Treat everything as potential support and resistance but also stepping stones in case the market follows the main scenario highlighted with the purple path arrow. The second one with checkmarks is secondary and depends on the activity at the first vertical long red in case we reach it.

Arcs are special forces of attraction and or repulsion. They can be broken depending on the momentum or type of activity. If the price slows down near them it can just slide through them, but if candlestick patterns of potential reversals and inflections are formed, I will take a good look at them when deciding how and if to approach the market or adjust/manage previously opened positions.

9 апр.

Заметка

The price trapped between the two rectangles, waiting for it to pop out at the right time and change the trading boundaries. The purple envisioned path still looks interesting, but I would rather prefer the elements in the project and the price action tell their own story in case we encounter the standard type of coincidence we sometimes see in nen projects.

18 апр.

Заметка

Bonds have had some interesting weeks as of late, not sure if it has to do with the overall geopolitics twists and turns going on in the world.

The green did not hold even though there was an initial rebound from the lower edge. One last chance is where it meets the red arc to see if there is any appetite for buyers to change the tune in this one. Under the arc of course, what was supposed to be support can become resistance.

10 мая

Заметка

Not sure if this red arc is trying to be a support or resistance or irrelevant but we might see the market reach the proposed destination of the big green rectangle, even if the path and opportunities envisioned did not occur as in the initial idea.

23 мая

Заметка

Will the uk bond end in the green rectangle zone. Will economic politic and geopolitic factors increase the appetite for the bond market in the uk in the coming months? Are we in a descending channel that will shift the mood eventually? Is this even possible? Or does the market need surprise shock information to tilt it into the bullish scenario? This is not advice just questions I am currently pondering. Might end up creating a continuation for this idea with new levels and thoughts if we end up in the green zone with relevant price action to suggest it is indeed a zone of interest. I am also considering withdrawing the nen projects because of several reasons and potential implications. Let me know in the comments section your thoughts on this...

26 июн.

Заметка

Question for the 10y uk bond. Was the time stamp of the vertical green rectangle an inflection point? Bearish momentum might be catching steam, or at least the sentiment might hold going into the future...

3 июл.

Заметка

Support and rebound from the green but this could get a revisit...

2 авг.

Заметка

Sometimes a picture needs a thousand words. Sometimes a picture needs zero words. Sometimes a word needs a picture. Word.