Markets Rejoice Early, and Experts Talk about Omicron

30 нояб. 2021 г.

Yesterday the markets realized that on Friday they somehow overdid it and counter movements were observed on most of the assets. However, in most cases it was not possible to return to the original ones. The reason, on the one hand, is the hope that everything is not so bad with this Omicron and can still carry. On the other hand, the risks are still great to walk for everything.

In this light, there is nothing strange in the fact that there was only talk on the market about a new strain.

The WHO has warned that the risks associated with the omicron are very high and the consequences are serious. Many countries have imposed travel restrictions from several African countries. And Japan, out of harm's way, decided to ban everyone in general, prohibiting entry to foreign citizens.

Faucci told Biden that it would take about two weeks to assess the potential of the new strain. So stock up on popcorn.

However, vaccine manufacturers Moderna and Pfizer have assured that it will take them about a hundred days to develop a new vaccine, if needed.

Goldman hastened to sketch out scenarios for the development of events from the most terrible, when the omicron turns out to be a delta squared and the world economy again goes into lockdown to the most optimistic, in which the omicron will cause an easier course of the disease, which will even play into the hands of the healthcare system.

In any case, there is not enough data yet. The easiest way to gauge the magnitude of the problem is to observe South Africa where the virus came from. If the quality characteristics there change for the worse (more severe cases per 1000, more deaths, etc.), then you need to prepare for a bad scenario.

In the face of such uncertainty, OPEC + decided to postpone the meeting of the technical committee. Let's remind, monthly OPEC + is going to decide what to do next with its coordinated actions on the oil market. It is likely that against the backdrop of pandemic panic and US interventions, OPEC + will not increase production, and maybe even cut it. In general, the second half of the week will be very interesting in this regard on the oil market.

Today, the main event of the day is inflation data from the Eurozone. It is worth preparing for another record, as yesterday's data from Germany showed new local highs and an increase in overall pressure.