Bearish thesis for this quarter.

2 апр.

The General world view sentiment for indices on average is bullish at any given sample size,
now, to adequately make a sensible thesis for US30 we first have to look at its drivers.
starting with MMM until DIS .
thanks to the Majority of the crowd participating the markets lately, coming from props and YTU there is ample liquidity allowing us to make plays like this and be right despite the actual economic health.

so, going back to the actual thesis.
the underlying components : KO, JNJ,MCD,CRM,DIS are underperforming due to well established reasons, moreover the positive volatility in the last quarter from APPL car and acquiring DIS is no longer in play. there is not much action in the economic calendar which can continue to push the price up in this quarter.

therefore,
even while considering the new quantum computer sales from IBM and positive feedback from INTC, JPM, APX,NKE . its not enough for the price-weighted methodology to sustain the bullish momentum for this quarter.

its better off actually buying more of the actual shares of positive tickers rather than leverage trading a synthetic asset like this in this quarter.

I'm personally hedged with op-co asset portfolio so, I will be in green regardless by the end of the holding period as marked on my chart. but my profit will be 2x if this particular thesis plays out.

cheers,
drsamc.