USDCAD analysis using Elliot Wave

22 июл.

Elliott Wave Analysis

H1 Chart:

• Current Wave Count: The chart shows that the pair is in wave (ii) of a larger degree downtrend.
• Wave Structure: After completing wave (i), an a-b-c corrective structure forms wave (ii). This indicates that the pair may be preparing for the next impulse wave (iii) downwards.

H4 Chart:

• Current Wave Count: The chart indicates the completion of wave (ii) and the start of wave (iii) downwards.
• Projection: If the wave count is accurate, we should expect wave (iii) to continue downwards, possibly followed by a minor correction wave (iv) and then another downward move in wave (v).
• Targets: The immediate target for wave (iii) might be around 1.33521, and wave (v) might extend towards 1.31669.

Daily Chart:

• Current Wave Count: The chart indicates the completion of a larger degree wave (1) and the corrective wave (2) is in progress.
• Wave Structure: The daily chart suggests that the corrective wave (2) might be nearing completion, possibly forming a zigzag or complex correction.
• Targets: The potential targets for the end of wave (2) might be around 1.31669, where it might find support before a new impulsive wave (3) starts upwards.

MACD Analysis

H1 Chart:

• Current Reading: The MACD is showing a slight bullish divergence, indicating potential for a minor upward correction.
• Momentum: The histogram is relatively flat, suggesting that momentum is weak and a major move might be pending.

H4 Chart:

• Current Reading: The MACD shows a bearish crossover, confirming the beginning of wave (iii) downwards.
• Momentum: The bearish momentum is gaining, supporting the Elliott Wave count of a downward move in wave (iii).

Daily Chart:

• Current Reading: The MACD shows a bearish divergence from previous highs, indicating the corrective wave (2) might still be in play.
• Momentum: The bearish momentum is prevalent, but not extremely strong, suggesting a potential near-term bottom for the correction.

RSI Analysis

H1 Chart:

• Current Reading: The RSI is around 52, indicating a neutral zone with no strong momentum in either direction.
• Overbought/Oversold Levels: There is no immediate indication of the pair being overbought or oversold.

H4 Chart:

• Current Reading: The RSI is around 55.68, which is slightly bullish but near the neutral zone.
• Trend Indication: The RSI supports the idea of a minor correction before resuming the downtrend.

Daily Chart:

• Current Reading: The RSI is around 52.21, indicating a neutral condition but slightly leaning towards a bullish recovery post-correction.
• Overbought/Oversold Levels: No immediate overbought/oversold signals, suggesting the market could still correct further before finding a bottom.

Conclusion

The overall analysis using Elliott Wave theory, MACD, and RSI suggests that USDCAD is in the midst of a corrective wave (2) on the daily chart. On the H4 and H1 charts, the pair appears to be completing or has completed wave (ii) and is preparing for a downward impulse wave (iii).

Trading Strategy:

• Short Term (H1): Watch for a completion of the current corrective wave (ii) and enter short positions targeting the projected levels around 1.33521.
• Medium Term (H4): Focus on short positions following the confirmation of wave (iii) downwards. Monitor for minor corrections and add to positions at the start of wave (v).
• Long Term (Daily): Prepare for potential long positions once the corrective wave (2) is confirmed complete around 1.31669, looking for a new impulsive wave (3) upwards.