USDCAD bullish recovery on the way? 100+ pips opportunity

4 июн. 2020 г.

USDCAD has been tening down for some time already with more than 600 pips. 3rd wave down looks to be completed and potential recovery might be on the way soon. CAD is a bit laggard currency this week, not quite following risk on and commodity currencies rally by both currency and secular performance. At the same time USD is under huge pressure, but coming at very key levels against majors, specially risk on currencies. Here I see opportunity on this pair, because any spark for dollar will trigger more upside on this pair than on others, plus key technical areas are just being tested multiple times.

Earlier today Canada's trade (import/export) numbers were more poor than expected and international trade merchandise numbers were also terrible. This may indicate more cautius and dovish stance from BOC in future and could be the spark that can weaken CAD in near term future. Tonight BOC's Toni Gravelle will deliver a speech, so volatility might come back if he delivers such tone.

TECHNICALS:

1D: 1.35 key confluence pivot (price trades in mid range) 50 pips are left on the table to fill ADR (not likely to happen) - RSI momentum is climbing up
4h: double bottom and consolidation area
1h: Price moves above 50 on RSI with multiple candlestick patterns. This indicates 1.35 is indeed very strong support -multiple rejections

IDEA:

100+ pips of potential upside is on the table given all the facts. However I will go with lowest stake this time because it's still risky, given the fact this is A COUNTERTRADE!

I see targets at:

TP1: 1.36
TP2: 1.365
TP3: 1.37

Stop loss: 50-100 pips below (1.345 area and below)