News background and trading ideas for 10/01/2018

1 окт. 2018 г.

The previous week ended for a dollar on a positive note. The turning point came after the Fed raised interest rates for the third time in 2018 and outlined a rather aggressive horizon for future actions: another increase in 2018 and three increases in 2019. Such actions of the Central Bank play into the hands of the dollar, which we wrote about on Thursday and why, in fact, recommended buying the dollar a week before the announcement of the results of the FOMC meeting.

But this week, the focus of investors' attention will shift from US monetary policy towards macroeconomic statistics, namely, the data on the US labor market, which will be published on Friday. For now, we will not analyze this data block in detail - we’ll do it by the end of the week and at the time of data publication.

As for today's day, despite the abundance of statistical data from everywhere, starting with Japan and Australia and ending with the USA and Canada, we do not expect volatility explosions precisely on this basis.

The most earthquake-prone are the pound pairs - the Brekxit negotiation process and related external special effects in the form of a news background will actively influence the pound. But even in the case of local losses of the pound, we urge not to panic and stick to the basic strategy - buying pounds on all fronts. We have written about the idea that underlies such actions more than once in previous reviews.

Restless today will be in pairs with the Canadian dollar, because our idea is being worked out, which we voiced a couple of weeks ago. As we predicted, the negotiations on NAFTA ended in success. As a result, the USDCAD pair is expected to sharply decline. Those readers who listen to our recommendations and ideas and entered a short position on the USDCAD pair on Friday already have about 200 points in positive territory. Which is very, very good for a day with a small position.

Well and one more our trading idea - sales of the Japanese yen, especially against the US dollar. This idea has already earned our readers about 300 points of profit, but we believe that the potential of the deal has not yet been exhausted.

We also remind you of just great points for sales of the Russian ruble. This transaction seems to us almost win-win, especially in the medium and long-term time horizons.