USDCAD renews 13-week high ahead of BoC, US PMI

24 июл.

USDCAD rises for the sixth consecutive day while extending the early-week breakout of a downward-sloping resistance line from mid-April, now immediate support, as traders await the Bank of Canada (BoC) Interest Rate Decision. Apart from the trend line breakout and dovish expectations from the BoC, hopes of witnessing upbeat US S&P Global PMI for July and softer prices of Canada’s key export, namely Crude Oil, also propel the Loonie pair. However, the RSI (14) line approaches the overbought territory, which in turn highlights an 8.5-month-old descending trend line resistance surrounding 1.3815 as the key upside barrier for the bulls. Even if the quote manages to remain firmer past 1.3815, the yearly high of near 1.3845 and the early November 2023 swing top surrounding 1.3855 will act as additional hurdles for buyers before directing them toward the 2023 high of 1.3900 and then to the 1.4000 psychological magnet.

Meanwhile, a hawkish surprise from the BoC and/or downbeat US data and strong crude oil prices might drag the USDCAD pair back toward the resistance-turned-support line surrounding 1.3750. It should be observed, however, that a convergence of the 50 and 21 SMAs, near 1.3685-80 by the press time, appears a tough nut to crack for the Loonie pair bears. In a case where the quote remains weak past 1.3680, the 61.8% Fibonacci ratio of the November-December 2023 downturn, around 1.3625, will precede the 200-SMA level of 1.3598 to act as the final defense of the bull before giving total control the sellers.

Overall, the USDCAD is likely to extend the latest run-up toward the key upside hurdle. However, the quote’s rush to refresh the yearly peak needs some time and/or a strong catalyst.