USDJPY – was it intervention from the MOF or not?
There was always a threat of JPY intervention from the Japanese Ministry of Finance (MOF), with many seeing ¥150 in USDJPY as the danger zone. Post the US JOLTS report, and the ensuing move higher, we subsequently saw a rapid decline into 147.25 and a 290-pip range on the day. The MOF has refrained from commenting on whether this was genuine intervention, but the fact we’re firmly back above ¥149 suggests some scepticism they did act.
What we know is the move and the intentional lack of clarity on the situation throws notice to JPY shorts on moves above ¥150. That said, a strong US ISM services and nonfarm payrolls this week could see a sharp break of ¥150, offering a heightened expectation of full intervention. A fate that would most likely cause a 500-pip rip to the downside - a risk to manage.
What we know is the move and the intentional lack of clarity on the situation throws notice to JPY shorts on moves above ¥150. That said, a strong US ISM services and nonfarm payrolls this week could see a sharp break of ¥150, offering a heightened expectation of full intervention. A fate that would most likely cause a 500-pip rip to the downside - a risk to manage.
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