USD/JPY Confronts Key Short-Term Resistance

18 нояб.

Market Overview
On Monday, November 18, USD/JPY continues its upward climb as the dollar is strengthening against the yen. This move reflects a mixed market reaction to comments from Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Ueda. While Ueda hinted at potential tightening, his hesitation to commit to a specific timeline left traders uncertain. This hesitation limited the short-term confidence in the yen. The market currently prices a 54% probability of a rate hike by the BoJ in December. However, this uncertainty leaves the yen vulnerable, especially as market participants consider the resilience of the U.S. economy and the potential strength of the dollar.

Technical Analysis
On the hourly chart for USD/JPY, the price bounced after testing a one-month ascending trendline, which acted as a strong support, preventing further declines. The bounce, followed by a break above the key resistance at 154.744, which coincides with the 34-period moving average, reinforced the bullish scenario. The price remains above this moving average, indicating stronger upward momentum. If it stays above this level, the primary scenario remains bullish. However, this level may now act as a support, and any retreat will see traders closely watching reactions around this area.
Further resistance levels include Fibonacci extensions at 127.2% (154.993), 161.8% (155.309), 200.0% (155.658), and 241.4% (156.036).

If USD/JPY fails to sustain above the 154.744 level and selling pressure intensifies, the price could pull back towards the Fibonacci 61.8% support at 154.395 and eventually test the key support at 153.830.