STRONG confluence seen around H4 supply at 114.93-114.57!

15 февр. 2017 г.

The impact of Yellen’s testimony drove the USD/JPY skywards yesterday, reaching a high of 114.49 on the day. To make a long story short, this has brought H4 price up to a nearby area of H4 supply at 114.93-114.57, which we feel will likely hold price lower today. There are a number of technical aspects that support this view:

• A H4 trendline resistance etched from the high 115.62.
• December’s opening level at 114.68.
• A H4 AB=CD approach which (symmetrically) concludes just ahead of the H4 supply mentioned above.
• Bolstered by a daily resistance area at 115.62-114.60.

Our suggestions: In light of the above confluence, our team is looking to short at 114.71, with the stop set a few pips above the H4 AB=CD 161.8% ext. (114.96) and round number (115) at 115.03. Please ignore the bold red line as this our alert, nothing more.

Data points to consider: US CPI and US retail sales scheduled for release at 1.30pm, with another day of testimony from Fed Chair Janet Yellen at 3pm. FOMC member Harker speaks at 5.45pm GMT.