While the herd thinks "everything is fine" ... ridethepig

13 сент. 2019 г.

Here we are issuing another USDJPY short position following the ECB cutting further into negative. Those in Japan have been buying EGBs with lower European rates increasing hedging of European yields.

Expectations of those holding EGB to withdraw via Japan from USD holdings, will keep USDJPY capped below 108 as widely mentioned in the chatroom.

Headlines are floating around on the trade war side suggesting everything is positive and will live happily ever after...sadly the uncertainty remains and global growth is slowing as a result of protectionism. US risk assets are very feeble (btw those in Japan are heavily exposed) and with valuations so high and Fed unlikely to please dovish expectations now is the time to start working the sell side.

We have a powerful barrier at 108 and can keep our stops comfortably above 109.4 as invalidation for the setup will occur here. I am actively selling more units of USDJPY with targets for year-end at 101.

Risks to this thesis are from US-China accelerating a deal and keeping risk appetite supported...Best of luck all those in USDJPY.

7 окт. 2019 г.

Заметка

Soft opening from Europe... Expecting risk-off flows