There has been hesitation in getting short usdjpy over the past month. Probably because of the strong up trend we have seen over the past few years.
The pair has now switched to a bearish trend on all TF's 4H and up.
There was also a fear of intervention from the BOJ, keep in mind, they have already attempted to surprise the market with a rate cut back in Jan - and failed.
Having said that, some 4H reversal candles appear near the previous high at channel retest. Analysis on smaller TF's suggest one more shot at highs in the 109.50 is possible. Targets have been set conservatively at 107, but this leg could get us to major support at 106.60
Breach of previous highs at 109.74 invalidates setup - good R:R from these levels
The pair has now switched to a bearish trend on all TF's 4H and up.
There was also a fear of intervention from the BOJ, keep in mind, they have already attempted to surprise the market with a rate cut back in Jan - and failed.
Having said that, some 4H reversal candles appear near the previous high at channel retest. Analysis on smaller TF's suggest one more shot at highs in the 109.50 is possible. Targets have been set conservatively at 107, but this leg could get us to major support at 106.60
Breach of previous highs at 109.74 invalidates setup - good R:R from these levels
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With Nikkei pushing highs, will give this trade a miss. Will revisit at a later date to see if it can be sold short from higher up