USD/JPY - Delaying The Inevitable ?! - 7/11/2016
Abe coalition has got healthy 2/3 majority by winning Japanese upper house election. It will rejuvenate Abenomics and give little boost to USD/JPY in coming sessions. Abe hasn't wasted any time and declared that more stimulus is coming. Seems like former Fed chair Bernanke has also adhered to the same prescription when he met BOJ chief Kudora recently.
For last few years, pattern is same. Market jitters - Central Banks to rescue - use of only tool they have - more easy money - markets shrug off the worries - cheers the dose and goes higher !
Today also Nikkei is up almost 4%. JPY pairs are bouncing and looks bubbly. In this situation there is no point in wasting time in more discussion to jump on board at good levels.
Only caution is that USD/JPY has close affinity with US Treasury yields and it is going down without any respite. But as long as 101 / 100 holds, we are ready to take the leap of faith targeting 104 initially.
Time will come to sell USD/JPY again but it is not yet. Power and money is closely connected and power comes through politics. So when big political change comes in, we need to listen. If Abe wouldn't have made big gain in election then USD/JPY would be trading sub 100 today but now the direction is different.
When exactly will the JPY pairs change the course?. May be when next equity meltdown comes or investors lose faith in Abe's ability. Let's see which one comes first and how long USD/JPY can resist the inevitable journey below 100. In a nutshell, short term trade is to get long. Pick your horse to ride higher. We prefer, USD/JPY, AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY longs.
For last few years, pattern is same. Market jitters - Central Banks to rescue - use of only tool they have - more easy money - markets shrug off the worries - cheers the dose and goes higher !
Today also Nikkei is up almost 4%. JPY pairs are bouncing and looks bubbly. In this situation there is no point in wasting time in more discussion to jump on board at good levels.
Only caution is that USD/JPY has close affinity with US Treasury yields and it is going down without any respite. But as long as 101 / 100 holds, we are ready to take the leap of faith targeting 104 initially.
Time will come to sell USD/JPY again but it is not yet. Power and money is closely connected and power comes through politics. So when big political change comes in, we need to listen. If Abe wouldn't have made big gain in election then USD/JPY would be trading sub 100 today but now the direction is different.
When exactly will the JPY pairs change the course?. May be when next equity meltdown comes or investors lose faith in Abe's ability. Let's see which one comes first and how long USD/JPY can resist the inevitable journey below 100. In a nutshell, short term trade is to get long. Pick your horse to ride higher. We prefer, USD/JPY, AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY longs.
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