USDJPY Analysis (D1/4H)

10 сент.

Moving Averages (MA): Currently, the price is trading below all three EMAs, indicating a bearish trend as it suggests selling pressure. The death cross (where a short-term MA crosses below a long-term MA) may have occurred between the 20 EMA and 50 EMA, reinforcing the bearish sentiment.

Support Zone: There's a clear support zone at around 142. The price is currently hovering near this level, which has been tested multiple times. If the support holds, it may present a buying opportunity; however, a break below this could signal a further bearish continuation.

RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI is currently around 33.76, which is close to the oversold region (below 30). This indicates that the pair might be slightly oversold, potentially signaling a buying opportunity if the price holds at the support level.

MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD line (0.042) is below the signal line (-1.938), with negative histogram bars, suggesting bearish momentum. The MACD is in negative territory, confirming the downtrend.


Potential Opportunities:

Buying Opportunity:
Scenario 1: If the price respects the support level near 142 and the RSI begins to reverse upward from oversold territory, this could signal a short-term bounce or reversal, presenting a buying opportunity. You might wait for confirmation from price action, such as bullish candlestick patterns (e.g., a bullish engulfing pattern).
Scenario 2: Look for a potential MACD crossover or a bullish divergence in the RSI for additional confirmation of a reversal.


Selling Opportunity:
Scenario 1: If the price breaks below the 142 support level, this would signal further downside potential, possibly towards the 140.00 psychological level or lower. A breakdown here, accompanied by increasing bearish momentum in the MACD, could be a strong sell signal.
Scenario 2: The price is below the 20, 50, and 200 EMAs, indicating overall bearish sentiment. If there’s a weak bounce to the EMAs (especially the 20 EMA), it could offer a good chance to short the pair.

Buy Strategy: Watch for a reversal near the 142 support area with RSI indicating oversold conditions. Wait for bullish price action or a MACD crossover.

Sell Strategy: A break below 142 could trigger a bearish move, and you can consider selling. Alternatively, shorting the pair on a weak bounce to any of the EMAs could also be a strategy.