USDJPY → About to Breakout to New Highs? Let's Maximize Profits!

10 февр.

USDJPY is on its third leg up in this bull channel that started at 141.000. We're near the top of Resistance Zone, is a long justified?

How do we trade this? 🤔
We need confirmation of a breakout to justify a long. After the initial bull run to 152.000, USDJPY pulled back with three legs to 140.200 and followed with a run to our current position of just over 149.000. The price action is technically at a new high in this run which could be the top of the third and final leg up.

Given the two strong bull bar closes on February 2nd and 8th and the lack of a sell signal, I do not believe this leg is over yet. What we need is a close above the Resistance Zone at 150.000 followed by a test of the top of Resistance as support. Once we see that support, it's reasonable to enter a long position with a 1:2 Risk/Reward Ratio. Take half profits at 1:1 Risk/Reward which is 151.200, move the stop loss up to the entry price to lock in profits, then swing the second half above the previous 152.000 high. 152.000 is a significant resistance area and I would be cautious to assume we'll make it to that price, however, the trend is our friend until the very end. Until we have a reason to change our bias, we must remain long.


💡 Trade Idea 💡

Long Entry: 150.385
🟥 Stop Loss: $149.250
✅ Take Profit #1: $151.200
✅ Take Profit #2: $152.650
⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio: 1:2


🔑 Key Takeaways 🔑

1. Two strong legs up in a micro bull channel.
2. Third leg in progress, strong bull bar closes on February 2nd and 8th, indicating more upward momentum.
3. Near the top of the Resistance Zone, wait for a close above and test of Resistance as Support.
4. Enter a 1:2 Risk/Reward trade taking half profits at 1:1 Risk/Reward.
5. RSI at 63.00 and above the moving average, supports long bias.


💰 Trading Tip 💰
The longer a trend continues after 3 legs, the probability of that trend continuing lessens. Because of this decreased probability, we ought to reduce our risk when entering trades.


⚠️ Risk Warning! ⚠️
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. You are solely responsible for your trades. Trade at your own risk!


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13 февр.

Заметка

We have our break of resistance! Now we need this Daily candle to close near its high above the Resistance Zone. It will likely come back down and test the top of the Resistance Zone as support. You could reasonable long this bar when it closes although, we are later in this micro-trend so that gives us a bit less probability than waiting for the support test. I would reduce my initial risk longing this bar compared to waiting for the test.

15 февр.

Заметка

As expected, USDJPY is coming back down to the Resistance Zone and likely going to test for support! If we zoom into the 4HR candles, we're very close to the 30EMA which could act as our support area. Once we get a decent bull close, a long is justified.

16 февр.

Сделка активна

Trade entered at 150.466! Take profit and stop loss ratios remain the same with a first take profit at 151.231 and the second at 152.651. Stop loss at 149.669.

We received our support at the Resistance Zone. Zooming into the 4HR chart, we can see a strong bull candle closing near its high after making contact with the 4HR 30EMA which happens to overlap with the Resistance Zone top.

18 февр.

Заметка

As the market opens shortly and we zoom into the 4HR chart, we can see the 30EMA providing some steady support. Let's continue to watch and ensure that support line holds to keep our premises valid. Our first take profit is 100 pips away and will secure profits for this trade as we will move our stop loss up to our entry for the second half of our position to the second take profit target.

26 февр.

Заметка

USDJPY continues to test the 4HR 30EMA. We re-tested 150.800, but need a breakout of that price with a strong close to reach our first take profit and lock in profits by selling half of our position and moving the stop loss up to the entry price. There is no reason just yet to expect a reversal given the support at the 30EMA, we must continue to watch the price test support and press forward.

29 февр.

Сделка закрыта: достигнута стоп-лосс цена

Not this time! Stop loss reached after a massive rejection at 150.800. From here, I'm looking for continued support from the 4HR 200EMA or the Daily 30EMA. I won't be entering another trade on this pair likely until next week since we're late in the trading week.