Unfortunately my trade got stopped out last Tuesday when price shot up some 36 hours prior to the FOMC meeting, luckily I didnt go long sensing that this was only an impulse prior to the upcoming events. Nonetheless, it does seem as though USD/JPY is back on track to complete the bearish Gartley pattern. As I mentioned in my previous analysis of USD/JPY on the weekly time frame, the key level in going forward this week will be the 110.28 level, which on the daily time frame is just above the 61.8% retracement level measured from 108.11 to 113.18.
If you look closely you will see the 200SMA sloping slightly downwards at the 110.05 level, this is alarming if you want this pair to remain bullish, but great for those shorting this pair. It does not invariably mean bearish momentum is guaranteed but it also does not indicate bullish momentum.
Trade short 1 (RvR ratio 2:1) Entry: Close below 111.20 S/L: 112.75 T/P 1: 110.05 T/P 2: 108.11
Trade short 2 (RvR ratio 2:1) Entry: Close below 108.11 S/L: 109.85 T/P 3: 104.63
As always, scale out your profits and adjust stop/loss to suit your personal risk management profile.
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