USD JPY - Sell imbalance, before long term buying opportunities.

12 сент. 2021 г.

Hello Traders and Analysts,

Breakdown:
1. Note
2. Contents
3. Research breakdown
4. Education recap
5. Information on Lupa.

A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged short, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances.
Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. However, note - the overall trend is bullish.

Master Key for zones

• Red = Three Month
  
• Blue = Monthly
  
• Purple = weekly
  
• Scarlet [Red] - Four day
  
• Orange = Daily
  
• Green = 8 Hour, 16hour
  
• Grey = 4hour
  
• Pink = 1 hour
  

Previous analysis's
Original -

Updated -

Firstly, if you have been following - the longs are still active - in the form of a forward contract, will be looking to open more FX positions as and when based on the analysis below.
As analysed - the buying power imbalance was key to the buying positions upon multiple opportunities to add along the way.

Monthly imbalances for USD JPY
These zones have been highlighted due to the imbalance showing a strong pivotal reversion point where price has set a psychological level of 100.00 to be a structural level for the USD.
The monthly wicks also highlight a great opportunity where the imbalance is strongest within the wick zones around 100-102.
Second to this, the monthly test occurring back in January 2021 created a higher low, informing that the buyers have taken over the monthly imbalance and have created a weekly imbalance zone where price will use as a discounted zone.

Since the previous analysis update - price has now reached the monthly zone between 109.6 - 111.8X which has is show below.


From the analysis - a short opportunity is present, but overall the structure is bullish, so whilst this is a counter trade, please keep in mind the overall monthly indicates a long* - this is due to a correctional play which will have a probability of occurring.
-Short,
-before very long opportunity occurs.

Bullish pattern outline


Imbalance Netting*
Where the buying power and selling power have now successfully netted to Zero, based upon a volume level of 50/50 tug of war.
This can now shift the probability towards the transition of sellers, taken


Cross-asset comparison;
Looking to the DXY, US05-US02Y short term yields, look towards the critical levels here where DXY and USDJPY shows an opportunity where imbalances have established.


Breakdown of Technical write up
Quantitative easing (QE) is where the increasing the money supply of the system, where the Central Bank creates new money and uses the money to make asset purchases. These asset purchases inject the new money into the system.
(QE) tapering will be seen on interest rates. The impact is almost immediate - affecting the sentiment. (QE) can be used where interest is at zero %, as the central bank(s) want to introduce more stimulus.
Conversely - when easing occurs, adoption of a new introduction is will send the interest rates shooting, the money to those who can offer the highest interest rates and this competition will send the interest rates skyrocketing. This directly affects the Equity market and the FX safe-haven pairs immediately.

Employment
In relation to employment is closely linked to that state of inflation or deflation in the economy. When there is excess money in the economy, the confidence is upbeat and CPI [consumer price index] aligns with goods production resulting in people getting employed in the economy or in this case - returning to the original job before the pandemic. Therefore quantitative easing (QE) is positively correlated to a higher employment level* subject to NFP "True" figure of new jobs created, not in the aspect of 'Return to work'.

See the article snippet below affecting the US Market.
"On Labor Day, COVID-era expanded unemployment benefit programs expired. Those temporary programs included the $300 weekly bonus checks as well as coverage for those who are normally ineligible for unemployment insurance, like gig workers and the long-term unemployed. More than 11 million people were impacted by the cutoff, and roughly 7.5 million people lost their benefits entirely". - Source CNET.com/personal-finance/your/money

Inflation or Deflation?
inflation is likely to turn into deflation through (QE) where tapering pulls money out of the system, where less money (as compared to before) chasing the goods available, making every good less expensive. Great for consumers?!

Daily Fibonacci
The technical aspect here is price will need to engineer a long movement so when coming to a pivotal point on the Fibonacci extension target, price will react here, allowing discounted buy opportunities. However, price is within a trading range at this moment - this is a point of interest or (POI), where price has consolidated heaps


Using the inverse Fibonacci based upon a channel formation for the short covering position, based upon a tapering scenario


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Thanks,
LVPA MMXXI

15 сент. 2021 г.

Заметка

4 hour view, once broken - price will head to "0" upon the Fibonacci , with a higher probability.