USDJPY: Downtrend continuation

9 мар. 2016 г.

We're currently in a short position in USDJPY, aiming to capture the resumption of the weekly downtrend in this pair.
The two targets on chart are time at mode targets obtained from the daily, but there's a possibility that USDJPY reaches down into the 2009 monthly uptrend's mode, or most frequent price in the advance.

The uptrend from the 2009 low culminated in time near the top, and since then, USDJPY has seen very sharp selloffs, in a volatile and tight range until it recently broke down after Japan announced the introduction of negative interest rates.
It is expected that the BOJ will intervene if USDJPY reaches 105, which aligns with the 2nd target on chart.
That being said, the 2009 uptrend mode range is between 101.769 and 102.611, and it's implied to be reached, after the monthly uptrend expired in time.

Good luck if trading this pair.
Cheers,

Ivan Labrie.
Time at Mode FX

9 мар. 2016 г.

Сделка активна

9 мар. 2016 г.

Сделка закрыта вручную

Waiting for volatility to recede. Safer to stand aside and watch for now.

10 мар. 2016 г.

Заметка

We might see a rally, as price has moved above the downtrend mode.
We could see it go as high as 118.04 but there are strong resistances on the way up.
Let's wait for now, and reasess.

11 мар. 2016 г.

Заметка

Took a long from 113.7 and closed at 114.245.
I see the move up has been retraced and we're trading at the mode again.
It's wiser to stand aside, or trade the range because price action isn't convingly bullish quite yet, but it isn't safe to short either.

13 мар. 2016 г.

Заметка

Waiting for confirmation to long, for now I'm long GBPJPY which had a clearer setup.
s3.amazonaws.com/tradingview/snapshots/m/mSttN41F.png

30 мар. 2016 г.

Заметка

After dropping to support, we saw an orderly uptrend in the daily chart, but now price turned down sharply at the level from where the last leg down took off. I'm seeing bears showing strength for some time here. Conflicts a bit with EURJPY longs, but it might be safe to be in shorts. (I'm flat at the moment)

5 апр. 2016 г.

Заметка

6 days ago
"...but now price turned down sharply at the level from where the last leg down took off. I'm seeing bears showing strength for some time here."
Downtrend resuming as expected, it just took a detour, consolidating briefly.