Yen Alert: Unprecedented Option Trade on CME

18 июл.

There's a pretty big reason to talk about the forecast for the yen's exchange rate. It's because of that big option trade that happened yesterday on the CME (Chicago Mercantile Exchange). These kind of transactions don't happen often with the yen, and this was the biggest one of the year so far.

Here's a chart of the nearest yen futures. It shows where the quotes are likely to move based on the type of options portfolio we talked about in this post.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/GEq3xx1G/
In other words, the guy who owns this option portfolio is betting on the yen going up, or, if you look at the forex rates for USDJPY, he's betting on it going down.

We'll be watching both the rates and his portfolio closely. It looks like he knows what he's doing.

24 июл.

Заметка

No changes to previous analysis. Reading recent news with interest: "Similar articles are starting to pop up in different places: 👉"The yen has been strengthening very strongly against the dollar in recent days. The USD/JPY pair has declined by 5% from its recent peak.
In previous years, the yen almost always strengthened when problems began in Western markets. Japanese investors, seeing this, began to repatriate capital home, selling assets denominated in dollars and euros, and then buying yen with them. It is quite possible that something similar is happening now"
At such moments, there is a desire to understand the option sentiment even more deeply"