STEALTHY PESO [REVIEW]: CASE FOR CONTIUATION

19 июл. 2023 г.

A mentor asked my thoughts on USDMXN continuation.

the quick answer;

- Trade between the US & Mexico has never been so pivotal. (Banks will increase transactions and trust.)

- CFD journals are lagging bringing any attention to the market just yet.


More marketable reasons below;




For the fundamentalist reader,


- Mexico / US [trade framework] driven to strengthen as chances of a US-China dispute continue to rise. see; trade levels between china and US at 2005 lows.

- The Dollar has only a few rate hikes left in the chamber.

- The time inflation takes to fall, tends to be symmetrical to the time it takes to rise, [16 months].

- as China / Taiwan relations continue to sour, the chances of a US-China dispute continue to rise.


For the Techies,

Zone 1:The lower end of the chart is in consolidation + some strength in the dollar. Opportune time for a pull back (UP).

Zone 2: The market sold through this level. Traders still holding shorts may consider liquidation if price begins to push higher.

Zone 3: Likely the market will exhaust to the upside and find refuge in new CFD/buying activity. This will help the price 'down' through recent buying activity.



Execution Plan;

before we begin...


- The map I've drawn on the 30M and does not take into consideration any economic drivers. Be mindful of [Major] events relative to the USD & PESO.

- The map does not take into consideration correlating currencies.
So please visit Myfxbook.com and take a look at the correlation map.

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- The purpose of this map is to highlight a possible pathway for price action and is not investment advice.
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- Zone 1

1. Your sitting on your hands.
2. Your looking for consolidation and release to the upside.

for order flow watchers; CFD's transactions are building to the short side near the bottom of zone 1.


- Zone 2

1. Still sitting on your hands.
2. Your looking for a clear pop to the target short rate, above [Zone 2].


- Zone 3 [ bottom / target short rate (low)]

1. Release your first [SHORT 1/4] here.
2. Prepare the levels above with [Sell Limit Orders] to grab a stronger avg short price.

- Zone 4 [ Top / target short rate (high)]

1. Your sitting on your hands.
2. Your looking for signs of exhaustion and CFD buy side demand.
3. Review fundamental data surrounding the trading partnership between US/Mexico.
4. Key in on your Stop loss total defined at the beginning of the trade.

and sit on those hands.




If the market rallies through the near term dealing levels, check back with me here.

I will update the chart.

The Peso has a ton of room to trade below current rates. The bigger the pull back (UP) the bigger the release (DOWN).


If you have any questions or comments, feel free to comment for my email.

best regards.

19 июл. 2023 г.

Заметка

The price action here was added on a very short time frame. Extrapolate accordingly.

24 июл. 2023 г.

Заметка

The initial plan scratched on breakout to the upside (above ZONE 3).

UPDATE:

- Sitting on hands in Zone 3 until we get a confirmation break to the downside.

- (Post Confirmation) Shorting ZONE 3 (smaller size - farther stop profile).

- Looking to add short on pull backs away from the downside.