USD/ZAR weekly candle.
Обновлено
The November risk currency rally is loosing some steam which has the USD/ZAR pair struggling to break the major support rate of 15.08/.09, which is on the trend line from from March 2018 and the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level from Covid dollar rush back in February and March this year. A break below 15.08 will allow the pair to move into the support range between 14.58 and 14.84. Strong support is expected at 14.84 but continued rand momentum could see the pair drop towards the bottom of the current upward channel at 13.88 in the first or second quarter of next year.
A failed break below 15.08 could however see the pair move back towards the 16.00, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. This move will however only prolong the expected move towards the support range of 14.58 and 14.84.
The MACD and Stochastic indicators are however dropping close to the their respective support levels which is an indication that a marginal retracement of the November risk currency rally is highly probable.
Local factors from SA could also hamper a move towards the support range namely: The weak fiscal position, continued civil labour union tensions and the threat of further credit rating downgrades (largely due to the debt pile of the long list of failed State Owned Entities and the crumbling of the SA economy). These factors could easily jeopardize the move into the support range which could mean that South Africans may never see the USD/ZAR trade below 14.50 ever again...
A failed break below 15.08 could however see the pair move back towards the 16.00, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. This move will however only prolong the expected move towards the support range of 14.58 and 14.84.
The MACD and Stochastic indicators are however dropping close to the their respective support levels which is an indication that a marginal retracement of the November risk currency rally is highly probable.
Local factors from SA could also hamper a move towards the support range namely: The weak fiscal position, continued civil labour union tensions and the threat of further credit rating downgrades (largely due to the debt pile of the long list of failed State Owned Entities and the crumbling of the SA economy). These factors could easily jeopardize the move into the support range which could mean that South Africans may never see the USD/ZAR trade below 14.50 ever again...
Заметка
The pair broke below 15.08 yesterday and is now well on its way towards the support range between 14.58 and 14.84...
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